On open minds

Most of the discussion about today's EKOS poll (warning: PDF) has focused on the Cons' lead in the party standings and Michael Ignatieff's plummeting approval/disapproval ratings. But there's another piece of the poll which looks to me like a far more surprising development - and it has the potential to be the most significant in the long run as well if the NDP can capitalize on it.

While public opinion has been polarized on Stephen Harper for years and seems to have solidified on the negative side for Ignatieff, Jack Layton's approval numbers aren't just the most positive of the three national leaders in Parliament (a net +3). Remarkably, six years and three federal elections into his stay at the helm of the NDP, Layton's numbers now show a small plurality in the "don't know" category (35%, to 34% positive and 31% negative).

Of course, that signals as much potential downside as upside (in fact Ignatieff was in a fairly similar position in June). And Layton's "approve" and "disapprove" numbers have both gone down since earlier this year, though the latter has been dropping more consistently since April in particular.

But the combination of a positive net result and a large number of Canadians open to being convinced one way or the other does make Layton the lone party leader with any apparent opportunity to develop a genuinely positive public impression in the near future. And there's an obvious path open for Layton to get there based on where the leaders have positioned themselves for the fall session of Parliament.

Indeed, the NDP's push to portray Layton as the responsible grown-up in a room of squabbling kids couldn't have come at a better time, as the Cons' fall narrative has been defined by Little Stevie's piano recital while Ignatieff's occasional claims of "I'm a big boy!" have consistently been disproven within hours. And the NDP's willingness to put its efforts into an ad campaign to make that message stick should maximize the chances that it ultimately will - which should give Layton another chance to sway Canadian voters from the strongest position of any federal leader.