Unconventional

There's plenty about this weekend's leadership race that deserves some comment in the days to come. But for now, I'll note one remarkable number as to how the votes were cast:

The vast majority of votes - 8,793 out of 9,444 - had been cast in advance using preferential ballots.

I'd noted last week that even the numbers released at that time - with over half of all eligible voters casting ballots ahead of time - could change the dynamics of the race. But in retrospect, that number far understated the relative importance of advance balloting and convention momentum in determining the final outcome.

With that in mind, it's worth wondering how the possibility of the result being effectively locked in before a convention will affect future leadership races. Will campaigns spend more time focusing on less committed supporters (or even identified non-supporters) to leave their possibilities open in case of a close race like the one yesterday? And will the principle of "vote in advance so you're able to work the convention floor" become less of a priority if campaigns conclude their time is better spent locking in outside support in advance?

Of course, we're at least a few years away from finding out. And it could be that this weekend was an anomalous result rather than an indication of how all future leadership races will run. But it seems entirely possible that yesterday's results will lead to a radical shift in focus away from the convention itself and toward the advance voting period.