Leadership 2009 - Dwain Lingenfelter Afterword

It seems like a fairly safe bet that the outcome of the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race wasn't exactly what Dwain Lingenfelter hoped for. But he does emerge from the contest with the main prize from the race - along with plenty of potential to harness the positive elements of the other candidates' campaigns to help propel him into the premier's office in 2011. And even if Lingenfelter wasn't otherwise inclined to change course somewhat from the leadership race, the province's political realities figure to leave him little choice.

For all the talk of his being on the right wing of the NDP, Lingenfelter was likely the leadership contestant whose message will be least easily transferred to the province at large. While "we must beat Brad Wall in 2011" makes for an easy enough theme for the NDP to get behind, it figures to run into problems among the general population of a province where Wall still has high approval ratings after nearly two years in office (no matter how much that may be due to a free pass from the media). Which means that Lingenfelter's strategy will have to include some combination of changing his message, or radically shifting the mindset of the province as a whole before the general election rolls around.

Of course, Lingenfelter hasn't hesitated to do what he can on the latter front during the leadership campaign: not only did he direct a couple of direct shots the Sask Party's way during the leadership contest, but even his policy proposals have tended to consist of equal parts positive content and criticism of the Wall government. From that starting point we can presumably count on much more clash with the government to come, particularly once Lingenfelter has the opportunity to lead the NDP's efforts in question period. And there's every reason to think Lingenfelter will more than hold his own in the give-and-take with Wall.

But having left ample room for the party behind him to renew its policy direction, Lingenfelter would seem to have a significant chance as well to assemble a strong case for change in 2011 without creating too much resistance among voters who don't share the NDP's view of Wall personally. And barring any major scandal which makes Wall so toxic that the NDP can win by default, it's the NDP's ability to develop a compelling positive vision which offers a readily-apparent contrast to the Sask Party's direction that figures to be the deciding factor in Link's pursuit of the position of premier.