Liberal 13 of 92

The Libs have telegraphed what will apparently pass for their strategy in Western Canada. And all indications are that Michael Ignatieff and company are looking at making minimal inroads at best:

Federal Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, who is trying to woo Western Canada and wants to be the next Prime Minister, should focus only on six to eight unheld seats in the Conservative territory, say top Grits.

"We have to be realistic. As a first step, we should choose six to eight ridings on top of what we already have and put in as much money and other sources as we can. Later on, we can focus on other ridings," one top Liberal based in Western Canada told The Hill Times...

There are 92 House seats in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia. In the last federal election, the Conservatives won 77, the Liberals won seven and the NDP won 14. Conservatives won nine of 14 seats in Manitoba, 13 of 14 in Saskatchewan, 27 of 28 in Alberta and 22 of 36 in B.C. The Liberals won five in B.C., one in Saskatchewan and one in Manitoba. The NDP won four in Manitoba, one in Alberta and nine in B.C...

Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale (Wascana, Sask.) said Mr. Ignatieff wants to reach out to Western Canada in order to make the party a truly national party and agreed the Grits should narrow their focus on winnable ridings. He declined to get into specifics...

"There are ducks in Western Canada, they're elusive ducks, but there're ducks in Western Canada and you don't write off Western Canada and that's what Mr. Ignatieff is saying," Ms. McLellan told The Hill Times. "In fact, what he wants to do is spend more time here and make sure that we, as a party, are speaking to Western Canadians' aspirations and we have some seats."

Now, it would seem surprising for a party whose strategy consists of little more than portraying itself as the alternative government in waiting to aspire to match the NDP in a major region of the country. But that looks to be where the Libs have positioned themselves, as the suggested range of 13 to 15 targeted seats fits perfectly with the NDP's recent performance in the region (14 in 2008, 13 in 2006).

Not to mention that the Libs themselves won 14 Western seats even while losing power in 2006. And the connection between that number and the Libs' latest plans may signal that for all Ignatieff's bluster about addressing the West, he actually plans to do less about it than his predecessors. After all, any Lib effort to win government will necessarily involve trying to expand their seat total beyond that from 2006 somewhere - and apparently the West isn't seen as part of that effort.

At best, one might look at the proposed numbers as part of a Chretien-style strategy of underpromising in hopes of overdelivering. But if Western Libs are actually listening to their party's plans, the effect would seem to be only to demoralize the supporters needed to improve on the Libs' current standing.