Words of warning

As I've noted before, it's for the best that the NDP is keeping up a positive message toward the coalition rather than threatening the obvious consequences if Michael Ignatieff chooses to match Stephane Dion's most crucial strategic mistake. But lest there be any fear that the Libs wouldn't receive any due warning about the effects of propping up Harper, Gilles Duceppe is rightly highlighting the dangers of propping up the Cons:

Le nouveau chef du Parti libéral du Canada, Michael Ignatieff, pourrait connaître le même sort que son prédécesseur Stéphane Dion et perdre en crédibilité s'il devait appuyer le budget conservateur, qui sera déposé le 27 janvier.

C'est la mise en garde qu'a faite hier le chef du Bloc Québécois, Gilles Duceppe, qui était à Québec dans le cadre d'une tournée du Québec avant la reprise des travaux parlementaires. «M. Ignatieff aura une décision à prendre, a-t-il affirmé. S'il accepte les propositions de M. Harper qui sont insatisfaisantes parce qu'il ne veut pas exercer le pouvoir ou qu'il ne veut pas d'élections, il fera la même chose que M. Dion.»

It's worth noting that as pleased as the Libs are with their recent poll numbers, their largest gains have come in the province where the democratic coalition is particularly popular. And while riding that wave of approval to the government benches would give the Libs a chance to lock in and increase Ignatieff's level of support, it wouldn't take long for both the Bloc and the NDP to start eating away at the current numbers if the Libs signal that they're not interested in listening to Quebeckers' concerns about the Cons' fitness for government.

Indeed, the risks for Ignatieff in supporting the Cons' budget may be even greater than they were for Dion: unlike his predecessor, he has an obvious opening in Quebec which he'd stand to lose. And the Libs' decision on the budget may make the difference between their reaping the benefits of frustration with the Harper government where they most need to rebuild their electoral machine, or squandering their best chance to set themselves up for future electoral gains.