On preconditions

A few days back, I commented at Sean's blog about the need for Saskatchewan's NDP leadership race actually include strong, multi-candidate efforts to reach out and expand the party - such that the worst possible outcome would be a coronation rather than a race. Unfortunately, though, it looks like the frontrunner's willingness to run is based largely on the assumption that there won't be any meaningful competition:

(A) majority of caucus support was one of the conditions Lingenfelter set before he would agree to come back. He also demanded the support of more than half of the four women in caucus and the support of more than two-thirds of caucus members under the age of 45.

Further, he wanted a provincewide organization of at least 700 supporters ready to work and enough money to run a provincial campaign. Yates compares this to running a full-fledged provincial election campaign and suggests it could cost as much as $300,000.

Lingenfelter is satisfied on all these fronts and is already hard at work.

Now, Lingenfelter has certainly made at least some positive noises about building the party in the longer term as well. But it still seems problematic both for him to have set conditions seemingly intended to guarantee victory before he'd even consider running, and for the bulk of the caucus to have apparently fallen in line so quickly.

Which isn't to say that any endorsements next week will necessarily make for the last word. And indeed, the drop in party membership numbers over the past decade and a half would suggest that a strong grassroots effort could very plausibly overcome the party's current power structure.

For now, though, the most likely direction for the leadership race looks to be the one that would severely limit any prospect of internal renewal. And Lingenfelter will need to answer for having made that so once the campaign gets underway.

Update: Sean has more.