Reason to switch

For all the focus on the party numbers from this morning's Angus Reid poll showing the NDP tied with the Libs, the even more important news may be this:

More than half of Liberal voters (54 per cent), and almost half of NDP (47 per cent), and Green (44 per cent) voters would seriously consider "strategically" switching their votes against their preferred candidate if it looks like another party has a better shot at winning, and could block a Conservative.

Now, I'm surprised the Libs don't have more of a core voting bloc than they apparently do. But these numbers suggest that the Libs' decline doesn't merely reflect leaners moving elsewhere while the party's previous core remains intact.

Instead, respondents currently supporting the Libs are more likely than their NDP counterparts to be willing to move elsewhere if that's the best way to stop Harper. And for voters who don't have a strong values-based preference between the parties, there's little reason for them not to do so when the NDP is already on even terms with the Libs.

What's more, with more Lib voters willing to switch, there's also a higher upside to their actually following through. If the NDP can carry all of its current support plus the Libs and Greens who would be willing to switch, then its support would reach 35.42%. In contrast, the Libs' similar best-case scenario would be 33.95% of the vote.

With the Cons likely stuck with a relatively poorly distributed support level in the mid to upper 30s, that point and a half could make the difference in determining whether the Cons remain in power - or whether a minority NDP government is able to start reversing the damage done by Harper over the past two and a half years. Which means that for voters who are inclined to vote based on stopping Harper, there's another strong reason to make the NDP their choice.