The nuclear option

When Berlynn posted last week about the possibility of the Wall government pushing for a nuclear reactor within the province, my initial take was that the Sask Party would have to be crazy to make that their main issue. And while SaskPower's report on possible reactor sites may be stirring up debate, I'm not sure it changes the political calculus at all.

As I've noted before, the argument for nuclear development is at best a tough one politically for lack of any natural constituency which would back the construction of a reactor. Obviously the would-be profiteers would have a strong incentive to push any project, but even voters most concerned about economic development can recognize that other, better options are available.

After all, SaskPower's report only confirms that Saskatchewan's demand for electricity isn't great enough to justify a nuclear plant on its own. Even with the proposed Lake Diefenbaker site singled out for its relative proximity to areas which might actually use the electricity, it's still clear that a significant chunk of any power generated would have to be exported (and wasted in part through long-distance transmission). Which would make Saskatchewan an odd place to put a nuclear reactor even if one is prepared generally to accept the risks that come with one.

Perhaps more importantly, in a province where contractors are already in short supply and high demand, a nuclear megaproject would divert a significant portion of the province's construction capacity. Which would make a reactor more likely to serve as a barrier to economic diversification than to help the economy in the long term.

In sum, the case for a reactor is both weak on its own, and likely to be made by only a few isolated actors. Conversely, though, any nuclear project only figures to serve as a flashpoint for opposition to the Sask Party.

As I noted in commenting on Berlynn's post, at least two groups would have obvious reasons for coalescing in opposition to nuclear development. Environmentalists will naturally point out the risks of nuclear power generally as well as the waste issue, while supporters of the Crowns will have every reason to be wary of any plan which would involve privatizing power profits.

But in addition to those two groups, plenty of others will have reason to want to join up in opposition - whether it's rural municipalities and businesses who would rather see economic development fostered across the province rather than focused on a single point, residents concerned about the danger to water within Lake Diefenbaker and other sources, proponents of other types of power, or others who join into the fray.

And if that type of coalition ends up spending the better part of the next three years opposing the Sask Party in its largest and highest-profile project, it only stands to reason that the same actors will be both highly motivated and well-positioned to end Wall's term in office in 2011.

Not that that's stopped at least one cabinet minister from suggesting that the Sask Party would want to commit to a reactor during its first term. But faced with the choice between pushing an issue which is bound to bring together the strongest possible opposition and focusing his attention on measures which won't do as much to harm his chances of a second term, I still find it surprising that Wall would even consider choosing the first option.