The waiting game

Sun Media reports that the most prominent provincial figure who seemed likely to oppose MMP in Ontario is still sitting on the fence. And John Tory's continued indecision looks to be a good sign for the Yes side:

The man who would lead Ontario is seldom at a loss for words when asked what he plans to do...

But the leader of the Progressive Conservatives said he’s not sure yet what he thinks about the referendum question on the provincial ballot Oct. 10.

Voters will be asked if they want to change the electoral system to one that would reward political parties based on their share of the popular vote.

“I don’t know,” said the usually decisive Tory when asked when he or his party will adopt a position on the referendum question that would boost smaller parties.

Of course, it seems entirely likely that Tory will eventually wind up on the wrong side of the issue. But it looks like he's biding his time until he can claim that his problem is with the specific wording drafted by the McGuinty government rather than the conclusions of the Citizens' Assembly...which would still bode well for the Yes side's chances for a few reasons.

First, the interim in which Tory remains undecided figures to offer a significant head start to backers of electoral reform: presumably the No side will receive both less media attention and less public credence as long as there isn't a single party leader willing to speak on its behalf.

Second, if Tory is indeed looking to focus his attacks narrowly, that would seem to also suggest that Ontario's Cons aren't spoiling for a fight against PR on principle - which would in turn limit the range of arguments that the No side will be able to make without appearing splintered.

And finally, if Tory is indeed planning to focus future criticism primarily at the government's wording, then the Libs are in turn likely to try to defend their own actions. And that should eliminate much of the risk that the Libs and Cons could work together to try to preserve a first-past-the-post system.

That said, it's still far from sure that MMP will be able to clear the arbitrarily high hurdles set up by McGuinty. But it looks like the voting thresholds, not any particularly forceful opposition, will pose the greatest difficulty for electoral reform.