A renewal opportunity

As I noted yesterday, Stephane Dion has ensured that sitting Lib MPs can't face a nomination challenge for any reason - including their demonstrated disdain for his much-touted "social justice" pillar in the form of a vote against same-sex marriage. But even if these MPs can't face any internal challenge, those who want to see renewal in their riding can accomplish the same thing by voting in a candidate who doesn't want to turn back the clock on SSM. So let's take a quick look at the current vote counts of the ridings involved:

Jim Karygiannis - Scarborough-Agincourt - 28,099 votes, to 10,634 for Con Bill Redwood and 4,943 for Dipper David Robertson.

Derek Lee - Scarborough-Rouge River - 30,281 votes, to 9,426 for Con Jerry Bance and 4,973 to Dipper Andrew Brett.

Gerry Byrne - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte - 17,208 votes, to 10,137 for Con Cyril Pelley, Jr. and 4,847 for Dipper Holly Pike.

Tom Wappel - Scarborough Southwest - 19,930 votes, to 10,017 for Con Vincent Veerasuntharam and 9,626 for Dipper Dan Harris.

Roy Cullen – Etobicoke North - 22,195 votes, to 8,049 for Con Amanjit Khroad and 3,820 for Dipper Ali Naqvi.

Ray Bonin - Nickel Belt - 19,775 votes, to 17,668 for Dipper Claude Gravelle and 5,822 for Con Margaret Schwartzentruber.

Dan McTeague - Pickering-Scarborough East - 27,720 votes, to 16,686 for Con Tim Dobson and 6,083 for Dipper Gary Dale.

John McKay - Scarborough-Guildwood - 21,875 votes, to 11,790 for Con Pauline Browes and 5,847 for Dipper Peter Cambell.

Gurbax Malhi - Bramalea-Gore-Malton - 25,349 votes, to 16,310 for Con John Sprovieri and 6,400 for Dipper Cesar Martello.

Paul Steckle - Huron-Bruce - 21,620 votes, to 20,289 for Con Ben Lobb and 8,696 for Dipper Grant Robertson.

Alan Tonks - York South-Weston - 22,871 votes, to 8,525 for Dipper Paul Ferreira and 6,991 for Con Stephen Halicki.

Wajid Khan - Mississauga-Streetsville - 23,913 votes, to 18,121 for Con Raminder Gill and 6,929 for Dipper James Caron.

Francis Scarpaleggia - Lac-Saint-Louis - 25,588 votes, to 14,164 for Con Andrea Paine and 5,702 for Dipper Daniel Quinn.

In each riding, the Libs, Cons and NDP were the top three in vote count; I've omitted the lower-ranking parties since this post discusses what would amount to a strategic vote.

On a quick review, I'd classify three of the above as particularly close ridings: Huron-Bruce and Mississauga-Streetsville where Cons ran second, and Nickel Belt where the NDP is already within striking distance. Which means that fear of a Con pickup simply isn't a real concern in the vast majority of the ridings where paleo-Lib MPs currently reside.

And in every single one of the above ridings except Huron-Bruce, if the Lib vote were to split exactly in half between the Lib candidate and the Dipper candidate (to allow for the worst-case vote-splitting scenario), the result would be an NDP win. Which would mean both a more progressive MP now for those ridings, and a chance to replace a paleo-Lib with a new nominee for the following federal election. (And remember, a loss in a future general election is the only way a current Lib MP need ever face a nomination challenge - meaning the alternative is to be stuck with an anti-SSM incumbent in perpetuity.)

In the end, it seems plain that Lib supporters disgusted with their current anti-SSM MPs have a readily-available strategy to ensure more progressive representation both following the next election, and in the longer term. The only question is whether they'll actually take an obvious path toward that end.