On contributing factors

Duncan Cameron notes that for all the talk about relatively minor influences on the Libs' first-ballot leadership results, Stephane Dion's strength (and arguably his subsequent victory) may be traced in substantial part to another controversial source:

Dion got ahead of Kennedy from the start because he had some secret first ballot support organized by a former Progressive Conservative leadership candidate, the man whose support Peter MacKay betrayed by merging the party with the Reform/Alliance, the legendary anti-free trade campaigner David Orchard.

Though it was little noticed at the time, Dion had introduced Orchard as a supporter last summer. By convention time Orchard claimed 100 delegates elected to back Dion. On the first ballot Dion received 856 votes, a crucial two more than Kennedy. Despite announced support greater than Dion (820 delegates coming into the convention, compared to 753 for Dion) Kennedy turned out to be behind him after the first ballot.

It's debatable whether Orchard had quite as much influence on the balloting as he claims. But it doesn't seem unlikely that Orchard's presence could have been decisive in pushing Dion's campaign forward.

Now, the benefits of having taken on Orchard's machine may not stop at any delegates added to the fold, as Orchard's supporters may provide the most obvious constituency to expand the Libs' vote in Western Canada with Dion at the helm. But it's also worth wondering whether Orchard's presence will force Dion to take on some baggage that he'd probably prefer not to have to deal with...and whether Orchard has imposed any price on his support which will now come due.