Deflating the hype

Erin points out that while the oft-discussed costs of the B.C./Alberta TILMA could be potentially huge, any benefits are likely to be slight - in contrast to the implausible claims of the governments involved:

(T)he Government of BC claims that TILMA could add $4.8 billion to provincial GDP. A Government of Quebec report, updated last month, indicates that BC’s gross exports to Alberta (goods and services) were $8.8 billion in 2002. Since BC’s total inter-provincial exports grew by 22% between then and 2005, its gross exports to Alberta might have increased to somewhere around $10.7 billion. It seems wildly optimistic to imagine an Alberta-BC free-trade agreement raising BC’s GDP by an amount equal to about 45% of its current exports to Alberta, especially since gross figures significantly overstate the contribution of exports to GDP.

It's hard to say what trade benefits (if any) would actually appear as a result of the TILMA. But with both parties involved going so far out of their way to pretend the agreement is something that it's not, there's ever less reason to think that the truth about it would earn a positive reception. And that should serve as a warning flag for any other province wondering whether to sign on.