On failed polarization

There's been plenty of comment on the CBC/Environics poll showing Canadians' declining support for continued combat in Afghanistan. But while the near-even split in general approval for the mission and strong skepticism about the chances of success show some widespread doubt about the Cons' strategy, the complete failure of PMS' attempt at jingoism lies in the large proportional decline in strong approval for the quagmire:

The number of Canadians who "strongly approve" of military participation in Afghanistan is at its lowest level yet, according to a new CBC News survey.

In a survey of 2,005 Canadians conducted by Environics Research Group from Nov. 2 to Nov. 6, 19 per cent said they strongly approved of Canadian military participation in Afghanistan. The poll is considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

That represented a four percentage point drop from a similar poll in October, and the lowest level of support overall in four years. When the first survey was conducted in 2002, 38 per cent said they strongly approved of Canada's presence in Afghanistan.

In principle, the Cons likely wouldn't be unhappy with an even split for and against the mission if the effect was to motivate their base. But based on the poll, it's clear that PMS and company have failed just as miserably from a narrowcasting standpoint as in an attempt to build a consensus for an extended war.

Meanwhile, the "strongly disapprove" numbers have been relatively consistent since March, suggesting both that the Cons haven't managed to polarize much of anything over the past six months, and that anti-Con voters will be far more motivated by Afghanistan as an issue than Con supporters. Which means that it's bad news for the Cons that Afghanistan is growing in prominence as an election issue - and that despite their best efforts, it's beyond doubt that the Cons will be unable to follow the Republicans' past success (with a heavy emphasis on "past") in building a large majority through warmongering.