On needed investments

The Tyee reports that while the potential threat of flooding may be greater than at any time in recent memory, the B.C.'s Lib government has been cutting the flood warning system which could help to contain the damage:

A return of floods seen in the past would overtop existing dikes by as much as three feet at Mission, a new modelling study predicts. The report, funded by local, provincial and federal agencies and overseen by the Fraser River Council, is due to be distributed later this month to local governments and First Nations in the affected areas. The year-long study used highly detailed updated surveys of the Fraser River and records of historic floods in 1894 and 1948, in conjunction with powerful hydrological models, to forecast what would happen if the same water flows returned today. The last time such a study was done was 1969, using less detailed information and weaker modelling tools...

More worrying still, the historical record used as a basis for the updated forecast may no longer be an adequate measure of flooding in the future, Litke warns. Precipitation across the Fraser River basin has been increasing at two to four per cent a decade in the nearly 60 years since the last serious flood on the Fraser, leading Litke to ask: "How valid is that historical peak flow? Climate change is an obvious big question. Something bigger could occur."...

How much warning residents would receive that flows upriver could threaten to overwhelm the dikes is also in doubt -- thanks to cuts in provincial funding for the network of hydrometric monitoring stations that track rivers in the province. The network, which stood at 600 stations a decade ago, and which experts say needs as many as 1,000 stations to adequately monitor British Columbia's many rivers, has been reduced to about 400. That number may fall to as few as 230 when the current funding commitment expires in the spring of 2009...

The total amount the province could save by decommissioning the early-warning network is $5 million, its budget for 2005-2006. A review of risks from a return of historic flood levels, conducted before the latest study calling into question the reliability of dikes along much of the lower Fraser, estimated potential economic losses at more than $1.8 billion, with as many as 300,000 people directly affected.

In fairness, there's no guarantee that the monitoring system itself will be able to prevent future damage. But given the potential harms, one would think that at the very least it would be a high priority to ensure that the best possible information is available - as well as putting funding into putting an improved dike system in place rather than waiting for the worst to happen. And we can only hope that a more responsible B.C. government will be in place before the risks materialize.