On winning allies

Lorne Calvert has won a surprising convert to the cause of removing natural resource revenues from the equalization formula, as Dalton McGuinty has come onside with a position previously pushed only by Saskatchewan, Alberta and the Cons' federal platform:

After meeting with Saskatchewan Premier Lorne Calvert on Thursday, McGuinty said he won't oppose excluding non-renewable resource revenues for the complicated federal revenue-sharing formula.

"I've told Lorne that I certainly will not argue against that," McGuinty told reporters at the Saskatchewan legislature.

"I've come away today with a much better understanding of Saskatchewan's perspective and I also must say that I don't know how the prime minister is going to be able to move away from the commitment he made to exclude non-renewables from the calculations of equalization."

The move is particularly surprising in light of Harper's decision to reclassify the Cons' campaign promise as a "preference". With the Cons' position in doubt, it seems highly likely that a concerted effort from central and eastern Canada could have isolated Saskatchewan and Alberta on the issue. But it's a testament to Calvert that he was able to persuade McGuinty...and the effect is to send the ball back into Harper's court.

With one of the provinces which figured to be a major opponent of the cause now working with Calvert on the issue, Harper will face the choice of keeping his promise after all and losing some face with Charest and Lord, or utterly betraying his party's base solely in order to win favour in Quebec and the Maritimes. And with Ontario not taking a strong position one way or the other, that leaves a strong likelihood that this time Harper's desire to push further into Quebec won't be the deciding factor.