Promise and pitfalls

Even with the party falling just short of the balance of power, there's still plenty of opportunity for the NDP depending how the next Parliament shakes out. While both other major national parties will have to deal with significant internal divisions, the NDP alone looks like it'll have an easy time staying united...leaving only the perennial question of how to gain some attention for what the NDP accomplishes.

For the Cons, the major challenge will of course be to govern moderately without offending the party's base. The minority may provide an acceptable excuse for caution to some, but surely there are plenty of people within the party who will demand quick action to radically reshape the political scene while the opportunity is there. And while there's also a clear opportunity to win over voters in the longer term by governing moderately, a desire for rapid change could leave Harper fighting just as much opposition within his own caucus as outside it.

For the Libs, the upcoming leadership race should be extremely interesting with nobody now looking like a particularly good bet to walk away the winner. It'll be an opportunity to win back some of the Chretienite supporters who bled away to the Cons - but also a chance for the contenders to create new rivalries and grudges. The Libs could either unite quickly or fragment in a hurry, and a lot of egos will have to be held in check to avoid the latter outcome.

As for the NDP, there really isn't any comparable potential for internal difficulties. But there's also little more to prove in the party's current state: it should already be obvious that the NDP can get plenty done with a relatively small allotment of seats, so nothing the party does now is likely to be perceived as exceeding expectations. Most of the upside looks to come from the potential for the Cons and Libs to run into internal divisions - and while that offers some hope for the Dippers, it's frustrating to once again see so much of the NDP's future out of its own hands.