On predictable patterns

While the U.S. has received plenty of attention for its trouble trying to attract enough recruits to keep its military going, it's not the only country facing such problems. And one top Australian official has now gone where nobody in the U.S. has dared, suggesting that Australia will need a draft to maintain its forces:

Admiral Chris Barrie, who retired in 2002 after 41 years' military service, the final four as chief of the defence force, said Australia's young work force would substantially shrink in the decades ahead due to lower birth rates. "In such a climate, we will not be able to attract the number of people we need, even if we attempted the usual financial incentives schemes," Barrie told a conference...

The military has warned that if a current downturn in recruitment continues, ranks will decrease from 52,000 personnel to 48,500 by 2010 - well below the 55,000 target the government has set.

Australia's military is reconsidering its ban on recruits who are overweight, have poor eyesight or suffer asthma as it battles to maintain troop numbers and is also examining expanding the roles of women in the ranks.

The country currently has thousands of troops on overseas deployments in countries including Iraq and Afghanistan.

Obviously the demographic problem makes the projections all the worse. But that future shift will only be exacerbated to the extent that today's potential recruits avoid enlisting due to their desire not to be pushed into action in Iraq (or Afghanistan).

Which leaves Australia in much the same lose-lose position as the U.S.: it can either concede defeat and reduce the size of its army, or it can take ever-more-desperate measures to try to hold its current structure. And no matter which option it chooses, the end result will be a weaker force in the long run.