Tuesday, October 04, 2005

Non-confidence motion

According to Decima Research, Canadian consumer confidence is at its lowest level in four years:
"These results likely reflect a combination of rising concerns about energy prices, coupled with concerns about the economic impacts caused by hurricane Katrina," said Bruce Anderson, CEO of Decima Research.

"The pattern of results indicates that Canadians seem to feel that the macro economic impacts will be more short term than long term, because the sharpest rise is in concerns about the one-year economic outlook," he said. "While these conditions might depress consumption levels, people appear to think that they will be able to get through the rough patch."

The index, which stood at 87.9 in May, dropped 13 points by September to 75.

The numbers mostly match similar trends in the U.S. and the U.K....but unlike those two countries, Canada seems to have a fair bit to gain from the current market environment, particularly through higher energy prices (though that naturally runs into some regional variance).

We'll see how long the trend lasts, as it's probably based largely on higher gas prices which themselves are coming under scrutiny. But to the extent that consumer perception helps to shape market reality, the near future doesn't look all that bright.

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