Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Softwood lumber after Katrina

With all the other federal leaders having made their points on softwood lumber in the last little while, Gilles Duceppe stepped up today and took a rather shocking position given the timing:
The Bloc Quebecois is urging the federal government to mount a global campaign to denounce the American government's "arrogant" attitude on the softwood lumber dispute.

Prime Minster (sic) Paul Martin should warn that the Americans "don't necessarily respect their word," Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said in an interview Tuesday with The Canadian Press...

Duceppe said the prime minister should also make his case directly to Americans.

"He (Paul Martin) should tell American consumers that their government is to blame for them paying too much for softwood lumber," Duceppe said.

The unfortunate part is that Duceppe followed a terrible idea with a great one - and the former will likely get more press as a result. At this point, the world is largely focused on trying to help the victims of Katrina (even if Buscho is going out of its way to prevent that from happening); a campaign to kick the U.S. while it's down won't win any friends internationally, and will only make the U.S. seem relatively reasonable on the softwood file.

On the other hand, an appeal to the American people (and indeed to the world at large) as to the effect of protectionist tactics seems to have nothing but upside, particularly on a good that'll be necessary for reconstruction. My only caveat as to Duceppe's remark is that the campaign shouldn't be a direct attack, but should rather seek to present the benefits of affordable lumber to the States.

Consider the impression if Canada were to present a quick and public comparison as to the costs of reconstruction with and without the tariff, and combine that with a positive PR campaign about how Canada has helped in the recovery and wants to help in the reconstruction. We could simultaneously make a powerful point about the value of free trade, and win some points for presenting (sadly enough) a more practical plan to make reconstruction affordable than I've heard from any U.S. source.

Granted, the success of such a compaign would be far from guaranteed. But it would certainly beat doing nothing in the meantime, as seems to be the current plan. The costs are low - even if it doesn't work, as a positive campaign it wouldn't create any enemies outside the U.S. lumber producers who are backing the tariffs. And the potential upside, winning both some public opinion and potentially the market access we've long sought, would make the effort worthwhile.

Update: Time for credit where credit is due. While Harper's envoy plan doesn't make any sense, he nailed the reconstruction point:
Harper said the tab for rebuilding 500,000 homes in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina could cost $500 million more than necessary because of duties "imposed on American homeowners by the domestic political interests of a few companies and a few congressmen."

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