Wednesday, September 07, 2005

On appearing to blink

According to the usual anonymous Lib sources whose claims go unchallenged (as well as one Martin spokesman), PMPM doesn't want an election this fall, and will avoid bringing forward any legislation that would force a confidence vote:
The prevailing desire of the Liberal minority is to avoid tempting the electoral fates before Justice John Gomery issues his report on the sponsorship scandal at year's end, government and party officials said...

An official in Prime Minister Paul Martin's office agreed the government will avoid a pre-Gomery election but declined to discuss strategic details.

"The prime minister made a commitment to call an election 30 days after Justice Gomery reports," said Martin spokesman Marc Roy.

"What we intend to do between now and then is not to play chicken with the opposition. It's to govern and progress on our legislative agenda."

The big question in response to the Libs' current position is whether or not this is simply a bit of reverse psychology. The ideal situation for the Libs is probably to let the Cons use up a lot of resources planning for a fall election, have a successful fall sitting, then go to the polls after a positive result from Gomery. And another few months of Harper desperately trying to goad the Libs into a game of chicken can't hurt their chances in an upcoming election either. But if Harper boils over in the meantime, then Martin will have a strong incentive to force an election (though he'll want to be able to claim to have tried to avoid it).

As for the NDP, it looks to be in exactly the same position as this spring: the sole opposition party focused on anything other than trying to gain seats in an immediate election, which should allow it to wring at least some concessions out of the Libs as long as Parliament is in session. And there doesn't seem to be much to lose. If an election's going to happen this fall, it'll be because Martin decides that the Cons are far enough down and out not to pose a threat, and that's still the ideal scenario for Layton and company.

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