Beyond Kyoto

Canada will soon be sitting down with most of the largest nations that refused to sign on to the Kyoto Protocol in an effort to make sure some that some action is taken on global warming. But according to a Canadian official (who apparently managed to remain anonymous while delivering a press briefing), there isn't much reason for optimism just yet:

"We don't expect outcomes on this at Montreal because this is the first discussion of the post-Kyoto regime," the official told a briefing.

"But what we want to do is build bridges between developing countries and industrial countries -- including the industrial countries that are not members of Kyoto -- as to the kind of regime which might exist in the future."...

Australia agreed in July to work with the United States, China, India, Japan and South Korea to curb global warming but the six countries did not set targets for emissions cuts.

In principle, if all these states are onside, there shouldn't be much reason why a serious solution can't be worked out: the U.S.' opposition has (at least on its face) always been based on concerns about China and India taking a competitive advantage, so if they're willing to come to the table there should be a chance for positive action.

But part of that solution will likely have to involve better-developed states being willing to share technology at least at a discount, though perhaps not for free as requested by India. If developed states are willing to look at this as an investment in a healthier planet, then there's a chance to put a meaningful dent in global warming. On the other hand, if developed states see the meeting as a matter of trying to push China and India into line without recognizing the global good in emissions reduction, then the potential to help the planet will go up in smoke.