Pollarization

The Globe and Mail reports on an interesting poll, but doesn't take all that close a look at the numbers. Let's fix that:

Decima asked respondents how likely they would be to subscribe to a service that charged $2,300 a year, with a $1,700 initiation fee, to screen for early signs of disease and manage chronic problems such as diabetes and pain.

“In terms of the size of the market, Decima found there are more than five million Canadians who say they would be likely to subscribe to the service,” the company said in a news release.

The firm based its calculations on the fact 5 per cent of respondents said they would be very likely and 18 per cent said they'd be somewhat likely to subscribe to the service.

The question was based on the concept of what one company has announced it will offer patients in Vancouver in October when it opens what is being called Canada's first primary care medical clinic.

I'll begin with the obvious omissions from the poll itself.

First, it doesn't ask whether people believe that the clinic in question should exist in the first place, merely whether they would subscribe given the chance. The question takes privatization as a given - and the Liberals' constant dawdling notwithstanding, there's no reason why that has to be the case.

Second, it doesn't discuss the interplay between the public system and any new private one. Would people respond differently if it was pointed out that the public system - which would presumably still including some care needed by the respondents - would lose staff to the new private clinic and thus be less able to care for patients and deal with waiting lists?

Third, there's a natural problem in posing hypothetical costs within a poll. It's easy to say one would spend money on a program when that doesn't involve any commitment, but does anybody seriously think that all the people who expressed interest in the poll would actually make the choice to subscribe when it came time to decide how to spend that $2,300 a year within the context of a personal budget?

In other words, the poll was essentially ripped out of context. But even with that being the case, the actual numbers don't show anything close to a desire for the private care.

Look at the numbers again: 77% of all respondents wouldn't even consider subscribing to the service. Some of that may be inability to pay for it, the rest presumably reflects other priorities and/or general distaste for the private system. But regardless of the reasons, this is what's known as an "overwhelming majority" - and if the media was anything less than completely biased, the story would be about how many people want nothing to do with the idea of the private clinic.

Another 18% were "somewhat likely" to subscribe - in other words, wouldn't dismiss the concept completely off hand. Can we safely say that these are exactly the people who would consider subscribing, but then ultimately put their money elsewhere?

So the real result of the poll is that 5% of all respondents are sufficiently wealthy and committed enough to privatization as to want to take advantage of the project. The public policy question is whether to let the desires of those 5% win out over the health of the 77% who want no part of the private clinic. Anybody need help in figuring out the answer? (That is, aside from Decima Research?)

(Edit: typo.)