Anonymous, in the most profound post of the year, asks whether or not I can add. My suspicion is yes, but feel free to check my math. I assume that the Speaker votes against legislation on third reading to maintain the status quo; again, let me know if that's wrong.
Here are the current party standings in the House of Commons. If all Cons and BQ members show up, and two independents vote against C-48 (Kilgour seems like a lock and O'Brien has to be at least a maybe), that's the end of the story: 154 "nay" votes out of 308, the bill is defeated.
If, as is more likely, O'Brien votes for C-48, then there are 153 "nays" to 155 "ayes". If Cadman is still not healthy enough to vote, and Sarmite Bulte's travel plans fall apart again, then it's 153-153. Tie goes to the status quo, government falls.
Hence my agreement with Mike that for all the Cons' tough talk, they'll have members ready to avoid the vote at a moment's notice.
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