On localization

It's fully predictable that a questionable narrative about Canadian politics turning into a two-way race will be blown out of proportion. But it's particularly worth keeping in mind how a focus on national polls alone might miss some of the most important steps taken by the NDP to get ready for the next federal election.

While the NDP closed the gap against its competitors in terms of national spending in 2008, it still had a ways to go in getting organized at the riding level to covert potential votes into actual ones. And so, as I've pointed out, the NDP has been engaged in a concerted effort to build capacity at the EDA level, providing incentive programs and support to make sure that local campaigns can do more to turn general support into riding-level success.

Like any choice, that strategy carries a price, with correspondingly less resources going into efforts which might do more for the NDP's national numbers. Which means that the focus on local development may go a long way toward explaining the fact that the NDP has mostly stayed at the low to middle end of its usual polling range over the past couple of years.

What the choice to focus on local development also means, however, is that a seat projection model which relies on national polling while missing any increased ability to translate that broad support into votes is bound to err on the low side in projecting the NDP's results. And while it's difficult to know exactly how the two factors will play out, I'd see at least as much upside as downside in combining strong candidates and improved local organization with a marginally lower top-line number outside the election period.

Up for the challenge

This spring, the federal NDP put together the Local Victories Challenge, encouraging its riding associations to build their own capacity with incentives for riding-level fund-raising. And the plan looks to have been enough of a success for the NDP to take the next step, with a summer incentive plan to reward ridings for recruiting new members:

While the other parties rely on big money to win campaigns, New Democrats get our strength from committed people on the ground.

That’s why we’re taking the Local Victories campaign to the next level – with the Local Victories: Membership Challenge.

Our challenge – to add tens of thousands of new members by the end of October, and build the base that will help you win your local campaign.

The plan will include both incentives for each membership sold, and extra rewards for the top-performing riding associations. And like the fund-raising challenge before it, the membership drive will be supported by efforts to facilitate idea-sharing among the NDP's riding associations to add to the obvious value in encouraging riding-level activity.

Which means that rather than planning its summer around a cross-country wild goose chase, the NDP is coming up with new ways to keep its grassroots growing. And the combination of strengthened fund-raising and a focus on new members should ensure that the NDP's constituency associations are ready for the next election campaign whenever it comes.

Blogging break ahead

I'm off to an undisclosed location until next weekend, with little or no blogging in the meantime. But if you're looking for a way to pass some time and do some good in the interim, why not help one of your friendly neighbourhood Saskatchewan NDP riding associations meet its goals for the Local Victories Challenge?

Battlefords-Lloydminster
Blackstrap (Darien Moore)
Cypress Hills-Grasslands
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River (Lawrence Joseph)
Palliser (Noah Evanchuk)
Prince Albert (Valerie Mushinski)
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
Regina-Qu'Appelle
Saskatoon-Humboldt (Denise Kouri)
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Nettie Wiebe)
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin (John Parry)
Souris-Moose Mountain
Wascana
Yorkton-Melville

Ask and ye shall receive

For those who received their tax rebates this week or otherwise want to pitch in to a good cause, let's take a minute to note a few of the worthy efforts going on at the moment.

First off, a couple of NDP candidates and constituencies are taking particular advantage of the Local Victories Challenge. Noah Evanchuk's Spring Fundraising Madness has been in progress (and apparently doing well) for some time now, while Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre's Help Unelect Tom Lukiwski drive is rightly setting some ambitious goals to help shift the riding back into NDP hands.

Meanwhile, there's plenty going on provincially as well. Ryan Meili's new web page has gone live, featuring a new "money bomb" along with plenty more content. (For those in rural areas in particular, check out the site for details about a creative Leadership Initiative in Rural Saskatchewan that will feature Ryan as one of the speakers.)

And now is also a great time to help out one or more of the other declared candidates for Saskatchewan NDP nominations. (And if I'm missing links for other candidates - as I know I am so far for Rob Dobrohoczki and Naveed Anwar in Saskatoon Sutherland - I'll be glad to add those as well.)

Take the challenge

It's been awhile since I suggested a donation to Saskatchewan's federal NDP ridings, with a focus on those which already had a candidate in place. But with the Local Victories Challenge now taking place (ensuring that your donation goes even further than it normally would), it's an ideal time for a reminder that the NDP's efforts to challenge the Cons across the province rely on enough local resources to at least partially level the playing field against the Harper money machine.

So I'll encourage readers to take the opportunity to make a donation toward one or more of the following ridings:

Battlefords-Lloydminster - Currently held by Con Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz, whose exploits shouldn't require much introduction. The NDP pulled ahead of the pack into a solid second place in 2008 - but has a ways to go in taking back what's been fertile territory in the past.

Cypress Hills-Grasslands - The NDP finished a distant second here in 2008, and the lack of much competition may explain why Con MP David Anderson may have figured he could get away with doing nothing during his Harper Holiday. Needless to say, it would be a plus to prove him wrong.

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River - With star candidate Lawrence Joseph seeking the NDP's nomination, this should be one of the NDP's top target ridings in the next election.

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre - An NDP seat as recently as 2000, and with the Libs dropping out of the picture over the past couple of elections the NDP's next candidate will be easily the strongest contender for the riding. And as an added bonus, your donation can help to unseat Tom Lukiwski.

Regina-Qu'Appelle - Consistently an NDP seat until 2004, but has unfortunately stayed in Andrew Scheer's hands despite strong challenges from Lorne Nystrom and Janice Bernier. And money looks to have been a key factor: Nystrom was able to win against Les Winter when he had the cash advantage, but the Cons have taken the riding largely by outspending the NDP in recent cycles.

Souris-Moose Mountain - Ed Komarnicki is another of the Cons' napping MPs due to a lack of recent competition. But the NDP has performed strongly in the area before, and Raquel Fletcher managed to earn second place for the party (ten points ahead of the Libs and Greens) in 2008.

Wascana - Lib MP Ralph Goodale has been in the Cons' cross-hairs for several election cycles now. But the NDP has plenty of history of success in the riding, holding the main component seat throughout the '80s and beating both Goodale and the Cons at least once after that. (And it's also my home riding, so I'm particularly interested in seeing it won back into NDP hands.)

Yorkton-Melville - Garry Breitkreuz has managed to hold the riding for a disturbingly long time as a frequently-offensive one-issue MP. But Lorne Nystrom's longtime seat should be one which the NDP can compete for again, particularly if Breitkreuz' one issue disappears.

Edit: fixed link.

All politics are local

There's been plenty of coverage of the Cons' efforts to trample on their grassroots in order to protect Rob Anders. But since many commentators have linked Stephen Harper's actions and the Libs' track record under Jean Chretien in an effort to create a narrative of "they all do it", let's note that there's at least one national party making a concerted effort to strengthen its riding associations:

Last election, virtually every New Democrat candidate who spent the local legal limit won, and almost every candidate who nearly spent the legal limit, nearly won.

To help build your local break through and grow the number of local campaigns that can spend the legal maximum, the Party has launched a new fundraising incentive program – the Local Victories Challenge.

While many of the details haven't yet been released, the NDP's plan looks to include a couple of noteworthy components.

First, there's the incentives themselves which will reflect a direct investment in riding associations by the national party. And while it might seem surprising to see the NDP funding a direct benefit for its riding associations at a time when the Cons are trying to slash party-level funding, the NDP may be able to expect an immediate electoral payoff as well as a party-building opportunity out of the expense.

After all, there's an important flip side to the NDP's observation that candidates who spent at or near the limit for a riding have tended to succeed at the polls. While the party as a whole spent close to the limit for its national campaign, NDP candidates used up only a small part of their available spending room in 2008 - presumably due less to a conscious choice than the fact that the NDP's riding structures hadn't yet caught up to the national party's development.

As a result of that gap, even a relatively small proportion of the money actually spent at the national level could make a huge incremental difference in what individual candidates can do to improve their chances of winning. And the fact that election reimbursements are greater at the candidate level than the national level provides an extra reason to work on being able to spend more on local campaigns.

As an added bonus, the NDP's challenge will also include a concerted effort to share fund-raising expertise between ridings. Which should help ensure that the campaign will help to build organizational capacity in the longer term as well as raising money in the short term - in addition to reflecting the NDP's recognition that it's a plus for riding associations to act on ideas of their own.

In sum, the Local Victories Challenge signals that at least one national party recognizes the importance of having effective riding-level organizations rather than looking to centralize its operations at every opportunity. And anybody wondering whether their riding-level contributions - financial or otherwise - are actually valued should be glad to see the NDP not only speaking up about the importance of local organizations, but also putting its money where its mouth is.

(Edit: fixed wording.)