#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - March 5

So far, I've limited these rankings to the question of which candidate I see as most likely to emerge victorious at the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership convention.

But since the rankings haven't produced any substantial movement, I'll include a bit more to this week's prognostication, adding my best guess as to the candidates' first-ballot support andestimated chance of victory.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

While I'm not entirely convinced that Meili is set to double the vote totals of his two remaining competitors, he still looks to be in the pole position heading into this weekend's convention. And the large number of votes cast in advance looks to be good news for Meili on two fronts: it minimizes the likelihood or effect of any concerted joint effort by the remaining two candidates, and it raises the number of votes likely to be cast in advance for one candidate only (which will limit the opportunity for another candidate to gain ground).

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 42%
Best-guess probability of victory: 65%

2. Cam Broten (2)

Once again, Broten may have more room to maneuver his way from second place into an eventual win. But it's still an open question whether he'll stay close enough for his down-ballot advantages to come into play - and even then it's not clear how many votes will remain to be won.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 31%
Best-guess probability of victory: 25%

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

Finally, Wotherspoon's chance of victory is based largely on the possibility that we don't have perfect information about the candidates' first-ballot support. But he faces a tough road in down-ballot support even if he starts out ahead - meaning that like Meili, he may be best off with a high number of one-choice advance votes which reduces the count needed to win on a second ballot.

Best-guess 1st ballot support: 27%
Best-guess probability of victory: 10%

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - February 19

While there's been plenty of news in Saskatchewan's NDP leadership campaign over the past week, there's hasn't been much evidence to suggest the campaign's shape has changed to any great degree. So rather than explaining why this week's rankings stay the same, I'll include a comment on pluses for each candidate which haven't received much attention so far.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

While Meili has understandably focused on his apparent lead within the leadership race, he may also enjoy an advantage over his opponents when it comes to shifting gears once all the votes are in.

In particular, the "healthy society" theme used throughout the leadership campaign looks to be no less valuable as a matter of contrast against the Saskatchewan Party within the province's general political conversation. And so Meili will be able to build on his leadership campaign message from day one.

In contrast, each of the other candidates would have more work to do in transitioning from leadership campaign messages to themes intended to resonate with the general public. Neither Cam Broten's emphasis on experience and party-building nor Erin Weir's focus on presenting a plan figures to serve as a particularly useful point of distinction from the Saskatchewan Party in the eyes of the general public. And while Trent Wotherspoon's focus on well-being might offer the best alternative framework within the leadership campaign, he has some distance left to go in developing that message.

2. Cam Broten (2)

The extended set of Saskatchewan NDP leadership debates has not only allowed many different people to see the candidates in action, but has also enabled us to take a look at some skills and strategies which might not be obvious absent that regular interaction. And Broten has shown plenty of comfort with one of the key public roles of an opposition leader, using a "variations on a theme" questioning style to expand on preferred topics during the course of the debate schedule.

That's important due to the reality that stories often don't filter into the consciousness of the general public without first being subject to weeks of media discussion - even as the media is hesitant to discuss the same story for more than a news cycle or two (and normally has loads of distractions thanks to a constant flow of glossy government press releases).

As a result, an opposition party looking to get its message out needs to be able to find new angles on a basic story in order to turn it into a lasting issue. And while I haven't always agreed with Broten's choice of issues, he's been highly successful at building themes while asking questions even as he pushes respondents in unexpected directions.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

I've talked somewhat before about Wotherspoon's ability to rise above the fray within the leadership campaign, but it deserves another mention here.

One of the iron laws of Canadian politics is that whoever auditions for the role of leader of the opposition in a general election tends to get it. And based on that theory, the relative combativeness of Broten or Weir in particular might limit the NDP's growth potential - at least until after another election cycle leads to a change in style and strategy.

Meanwhile, Wotherspoon has stood out from the pack in staying positive and friendly even while challenging his competitors in areas of disagreement. Which means that if there's any way of avoiding the trap set up by Wells' Rule #4, Wotherspoon may be the best positioned to find it.

4. Erin Weir (4)

Finally, while I've criticized Weir's campaign at times for being a bit too quick to promote his every media appearance, I'll acknowledge the flip side to that point.

While the other candidates have worked mostly to build within their own networks of supporters rather than focusing on media outreach, Weir has spent plenty of time (and applied plenty of media savvy) in making sure that NDP values get heard by a broader range of readers and viewers. And that figures to be a valuable contribution to the party's effort to reach the general public at a time when the Sask Party/corporate line all too often goes unopposed on key issues.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - February 12

As I mentioned in my follow-up notes from Saturday's Saskatchewan NDP leadership debate, the candidates' performance hasn't done much to change my impression as to their relative position. (Which, as a reminder, is different from my personal endorsement.)

But there have been a couple of additional indicators over the past week: the audience response to the candidates at Regina's forum, and the information provided by the few voters who have provided hints as to their down-ballot support. So will any of that affect this week's rankings?

1. Ryan Meili (1)

Well, there's no change at the top, as Meili has continued to keep at least somewhat of an edge over his competition on all visible fronts (including crowd support at the all-candidates debates, public support on social media, and perhaps most important his continued ability to draw crowds for campaign events).

2. Cam Broten (2)

In contrast, Broten seems to be facing some conflicting signals: while he's probably slightly more entrenched ahead of the candidates below than he was some time ago, he's also facing significant obstacles in trying to overtake Meili.

On the upside, Broten has seen a fairly regular stream of declarations of first-ballot support among voters. But he's always figured to need a strong down-ballot showing in order to win - which makes it highly problematic that not a single multi-candidate ballot or announcement that I've seen from a supporter of another candidate has placed Broten above any of his competitors. (Of course, most of those public ballots have been from Meili supporters whose second and third choices may not impact the race anyway - but it does seem to suggest Broten has some distance left to go in reaching out beyond his own camp.)

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

Meanwhile, Wotherspoon faces the converse problem. At the outset of the campaign I wouldn't have seen much prospect that any significant number of Meili supporters would list him second, as at least a couple have done already. But those down-ballot successes will only matter if Wotherspoon remains on the final ballot - and a modest showing at the start of the voting period would make it unlikely they'll ever come to light.

4. Erin Weir (4)

And likewise, there isn't much to suggest Weir's position has changed over the last week. While his endorsement from Fred Clipsham offers a helpful late-campaign boost, the more important question for now is at the membership level rather than the endorser level.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - February 5

Once again, there's been relatively little to shift the respective rankings of Saskatchewan's NDP leadership candidates. So I'll use this post to point out a few points of interest which haven't yet made it into roundup posts.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

I haven't spent much time assessing the choice of image made by the leadership candidates so far. But the last couple of weeks have featured Meili simultaneously taking on two rather different personas: as the tech-savvy candidate who's introduced campaign apps to the party, and as the traditional candidate who's comfortable presenting himself and his policies with decidedly retro imagery. And so far he seems to have pulled off the feat.

2. Cam Broten (2)

Broten too has introduced at least one retro image which fits neatly into his overall theme. But Broten's campaign has otherwise remained fairly quiet - and it remains to be seen how much of a turnout machine he'll be able to get revved up once voting starts.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

This may be a make-or-break week for Wotherspoon: the Sask Party's treatment of provincial auditor Bonnie Lysyk looks to be a lasting news item, and Wotherspoon is ideally positioned to respond to it as the chair of the Public Accounts Committee. But that opportunity comes with a risk as well: if he isn't able to maintain a clear advantage over a few government back-benchers on the story, then he may come under even closer scrutiny within the leadership campaign.

4. Erin Weir (4)

Finally, Weir has received a bit of criticism from Jason Hammond for pointing to commentary from bloggers and writers who haven't publicly endorsed him as part of a "Why We're with Weir" e-mail message. But while I've wondered at times about Weir's inclination to highlight what seems like purely neutral coverage, I don't particularly share Jason's concern with this particular set of quotes: each of the pieces of commentary posted helps to answer the question of "why" even if it doesn't necessarily come from a Weir supporter. (And indeed, I'd hope all of the candidates are able to take something useful from both the approval and criticism coming from outside voices.)

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - January 29

At the best of times, what's visible and accessible to the public makes for only a relatively small part of a leadership campaign's work. But that goes doubly over the course of a week featuring a membership deadline with no corresponding announcement of the results.

With that in mind, we shouldn't be surprised to see little change in this week's candidate rankings.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

While I've ranked Meili at the top of the group of candidates since starting these rankings, I'm also mindful of the need to watch how trends in the campaign affect possible alternative interpretations. And while Meili's membership numbers fall short of making him a prohibitive favourite, they at least leave little room for doubt that he'll stay on the ballot for quite some time unless he somehow loses current supporters.

2. Cam Broten (2)

Broten once again did well for himself in the endorsement department, ensuring that he'd hold his current position. But the bigger question is whether a late membership push added any more supporters to the party rolls than Broten held before.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

In addition to releasing respectable membership numbers of his own, Wotherspoon is also embracing the money bomb grassroots fund-raising philosophy by another name. And if nothing else, the effort should make for a fascinating test case as to whether Saskatchewan residents are more likely to be motivated or driven to inaction by a frigid winter.

4. Erin Weir (4)

Finally, Weir's campaign was quiet on the membership front, but did earn some positive press with a stop in Lloydminster.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - January 22

Not surprisingly, there's relatively little change in this week's rankings: there have been relatively few new developments, and the most significant ones have mostly reinforced the candidates' current placements.

1. Ryan Meili (1)

Meili's December fund-raising success ensured that his top ranking wouldn't be in jeopardy. But the most important numbers for his campaign will be those which crystallize this week: new membership sales have always represented Meili's best chance to put some distance between himself and the balance of the candidates, and we'll know soon whether he's managed to achieve that.

2. Cam Broten (2)

Broten may be the other candidate with the most at stake as the membership deadline passes. While his campaign doesn't look to have as wide a reach as Meili's, Broten's targeted outreach toward immigrant communities could offer him an edge in early-ballot support which might fly under the radar. And we'll have a better idea soon whether Broten will enjoy that advantage over his competitors - or whether he'll face what could be an uphill battle for support among existing members in order to stay on the ballot.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (3)

In contrast, Wotherspoon's campaign has made a more public push to sell memberships - but with little indication as to how many people are taking up the invitation. And so Wotherspoon stays at his current position pending some indication that he's been able to bring in a substantial number of new supporters to give him an edge.

4. Erin Weir (4)

Finally, Weir has taken steps in the last couple of weeks to broaden both his general appeal, and the scope of debate within the campaign as a whole. But he still has some distance to travel to catch up to the plausible multiple-ballot support held by the top three candidates.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings - January 15, 2013

Following up on yesterday's introductory post, here are my first candidate rankings for the Saskatchewan NDP leadership race.

1. Ryan Meili (--)

Lest there be any doubt, there's still plenty of guesswork involved in trying to rank where the candidates stand: the lone poll we've seen during the course of the campaign was released back in October, and it showed undecided voters overwhelmingly outnumbering decided ones.

That being the case, I see Meili having the edge for now on two fronts: he's since built a strong lead over the other candidates in terms of passive engagement, and has also assembled what looks to me like the most active organization. And those factors look to give him the edge both in recruiting new and supportive members to the voter pool, and in winning over persuadable members.

2. Cam Broten (--)

The leadership campaign's second-choice candidate finds himself in a familiar position in the rankings.

Broten still looks to be nicely positioned if the candidates around him falter. But his paths toward down-ballot support can't overcome Meili's apparent advantage in outreach over the first few months of the campaign - though they do bump him ahead of Wotherspoon in what would otherwise be a too-close-to-call first-ballot contest.

3. Trent Wotherspoon (--)

Conversely, Wotherspoon starts out below Broten due primarily to the fact that it's less apparent how he'd make a sequence of ballots work in his favour given a comparable first-ballot showing.

But if the candidates are grouped as closely as it appears, Wotherspoon still figures to have a strong chance to jump ahead of his competitors based on two key factors: the possibility that his early-campaign investments might start to show some returns when it counts most, and the prospect that he could win over members during the course of the leadership debates.

4. Erin Weir (--)

Finally, Weir ends up in fourth place as the candidate with the least obvious organization and public following at this stage of the campaign.

But as I cautioned in my introductory post, that shouldn't be taken to suggest the rankings can't change, particularly as members become more engaged in the campaign. And the bigger unknown for Weir has less to do with his current standing than the question of whether his messages will actually sway undecided members.

#skndpldr Candidate Rankings Introduction

As I did in the NDP's federal leadership campaign in 2012, I'll start shortly with weekly rankings intended to highlight the relative positioning of the Saskatchewan NDP's leadership candidates. But before I get into the rankings themselves, I'll offer both a reminder of what they're intended to accomplish, and a description of how I'll put them together.

To start off, the rankings are intended to be a matter of prediction rather than endorsement. I'll put together a separate endorsement post shortly before the voting window opens - but the candidate rankings for now will reflect my impression as to how likely a candidate is to win, not my preference as to which candidate ultimately will.

And to be more specific, the rankings will be based on a candidate's likelihood of winning the leadership at convention - not necessarily who will perform best on the first ballot, nor who has the most perceived momentum at a particular point in time. And they'll be based on my perception of probabilities rather than any measure of certainty: the #1 ranking doesn't necessarily mean a candidate is more likely to win than not, and a lower position doesn't mean a candidate lacks any path to victory.

All else being equal, I'll presume that down-ballot support is fairly likely to mirror first-ballot support - such that I'll need to see some specific factor to justify ranking the candidates in any order other than what I consider to be their first-ballot positioning. (In effect, this means that I'll be inclined to take any substantial polling of the race at face value - though it's an open question whether anybody carrying out any polling will have both the information required to successfully identify the voter pool, and the neutrality to allow numbers to be taken without a grain of salt.)

However, if there's enough uncertainty as to the relative first-ballot support between two or more candidates or a close enough for additional factors to swing the candidates' positioning, I'll also take those into account where they raise a reasonable inference that down-ballot support might not match first-ballot support.

So based on that process, where do I see the leadership candidates ranking so far? Stay tuned...