I was going to post about the 'Riders' offseason...until Stephen LaRose said pretty much everything I planned to say. So instead, I'll stick to pointing out where I'd question or clarify LaRose's take.
Simply put, I think he's right to compare the current 'Rider team to the 1976 version as a needlessly old group assembled with too little regard for the team's longer-term development. But I also think that the current roster is closer to 1976 than 1977: with one important caveat, the veterans aren't so far over the hill that the team figures to suffer.
And indeed, there's still at least some room for improvement over last season. The offense has plenty of weapons if the offensive line stays healthy and develops together (as I don't see Patrick Neufeld being anything more than a backup if a unit of Fulton/LaBatte/Picard/Best/Heenan plays to its potential), and the defence has far more playmakers than last year's version if John Chick and Ricky Foley have anything left in the tank.
With that in mind, I'd place the 'Riders' expected record - given fairly good health - around 10-8 (with plenty of early wins and a few more late losses). But that may not lead the 'Riders to continue the trend of teams making and winning the Grey Cup at home, particularly if the veterans wear down over the course of the season.
And the 'Riders are facing some ugly risks further down their depth chart. The biggest problem with filling out one's roster by thumbing through past CFL yearbooks is that there are few young players with any prospect of stepping into a bigger role to replace anybody who gets hurt (with the receiver position looking like the lone exception). Darian Durant's health is an absolute must for any 'Rider hopes; Neufeld may not be a part of the ideal offensive line, but without him the team has no margin for error with its remaining unit; an already-small defensive line could reach a critical point with a single injury to Keith Shologan or Tearrius George; and the linebacking corps is comprised almost entirely of players who have washed out elsewhere.
Now, if there's a rational strategy to be pursued with the current roster, it might well involve overpaying some veterans early, being prepared to trade or cut anybody who doesn't play up to his past peak level in the first few weeks, and encouraging the remaining vets to mentor a wave of new players around mid-season to set the 'Riders up for both a playoff drive and seasons to come. But given Brendan Taman's preference for pricey vets and lack of focus on player development, the plan instead seems to be to ride the new arrivals as far as possible - with no backup plan in sight.
That might well lead to the type of panic trade feared by LaRose - but a precarious cap situation figures to limit how many more vets the 'Riders can take on during the season. Which means that the best hope may be for the team's new imports to join the front office in failing to notice that it's no longer the late aughts - and stay healthy and productive accordingly.
Showing posts with label john chick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label john chick. Show all posts
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Sunday Morning 'Rider Blogging - NFL Prospects
I won't spend a lot of time discussing the developments surrounding Eric Tillman this past week, as I'd think there was a reasonable case to either keep Tillman or ask him to resign as eventually happened. But particularly now that Tillman is out of the picture, the 'Riders have to be looking at which of their 2009 members they can build around in the longer term as a new GM takes charge of player recruitment, and which ones they need to be ready to replace at any time.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
So let's take a look at one of the major questions facing the 'Riders next year and beyond: which of the 2009 'Riders are most likely to stick in the NFL over the next few seasons rather than forming part of Saskatchewan's long-term plans? (Needless to say, the question is particularly timely in the wake of the Indianapolis Colts' signing of John Chick, who'd be #1 on this list.)
1. Louie Sakoda - P/K
Based on his college production as a placekicker, it's surprising he was ever available for the 'Riders to sign last year as an emergency replacement for punter Jamie Boreham. And after taking a bit of time to adjust to the CFL, he performed extremely well on punts and kickoffs by the end of 2009. So it'll be a surprise if Sakoda doesn't manage to work his way into the NFL in the longer term - meaning that the 'Riders shouldn't expect him to be around for long.
2. Weston Dressler - WR
Dressler may be well below some of the players lower on this list in his likelihood of actually winning a starting job in the NFL: surprisingly few teams seem to have learned from Wes Welker's example that an undersized receiver with speed can be a hugely valuable weapon, and the team which actually has Welker in its lineup already has an understudy ready. But I'd have to like Dressler's chance of making good on any opportunity he gets.
3. Joel Bell - OT
Bell may not have the CFL reputation of the likes of Dressler or Fantuz. But he has great size and athleticism for an offensive lineman, and was able to play effectively in a starting role within mere weeks of first being exposed to the CFL game. And at age 24, he has many years ahead of him to potentially make a similar impression south of the border.
4. Andy Fantuz - WR
The working theory at the moment seems to be that Fantuz won't make it in the NFL due to his lack of speed. But I have to wonder whether he'll effectively get a shot at two positions: even if his speed won't play at receiver (which itself can't be taken as a given), at a sturdy 6'4" he's wouldn't figure to be more than a season in the weight room away from being able to fit in at tight end.
5. Stevie Baggs - DE
Baggs' strengths in the CFL may not translate entirely into the NFL, as he's almost certainly too small to last as a defensive lineman south of the border and may not slide in as a pass-rushing linebacker as easily as Cameron Wake did this year. But he's also been a highly effective special-teamer for the 'Riders, and would seem to have a strong chance of holding his own in that role.
6. Keith Shologan - DL
Shologan stuck long enough with the San Diego Chargers in 2008 to miss the first half of the CFL season, and has since developed his game extremely quickly with the 'Riders as an effective starter following Scott Schultz' retirement. But note one possible hitch for Shologan, as the 'Riders' preference for quickness on the defensive line may keep him from bulking up to the size which an NFL team might prefer in a tackle.
7. Luca Congi - K
On demonstrated talent alone, Congi would be at least two places higher on this list. But Congi signed a two-year extension in October without any suggestion that he sought a Fantuz-style clause allowing him to test the NFL waters - meaning that it's questionable whether he's even looking to make the jump, and that it'll be some time before he gets the chance. As a result, he ranks lowest on the list of anybody who has a relatively clear path to the NFL with his current skill set.
8. Adam Nicolson - WR
The catch for Nicolson is that he obviously won't get much of an NFL shot before he proves himself in the CFL first - and as long as he's behind Fantuz, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf among non-import receivers, there aren't going to be many passes thrown his way to allow that to happen. But his size and athleticism give him a better chance than Bagg or Getzlaf of eventually earning an NFL job, particularly if he gets to take over Fantuz' role.
9. Renauld Williams - LB
Williams has already been an NFL journeyman for several years, and thus can't be seen as somebody who's just needed an opportunity to show his stuff. But there would figure to be some chance that his experience as a starting (and starring CFL) linebacker will be seen as outweighing the fact that he's past the age where teams might see room for him to improve athletically.
10. Joe Sykes - DL
By this point in the list, one could fit in almost anybody from a couple of categories: either players young enough to have room for growth and athletic enough to fit an NFL position (Donovan Alexander, Hugh Charles, Jerrell Freeman, Graham Harrell, Carlos Armour, Michael Stadnyk), or reasonably young players with NFL experience who might be able to use their CFL game film as part of their case for a more prominent role (Dalton Bell, Lance Frazier, Gerran Walker, Chris McKenzie, Bobby Harris). But let's go with Sykes based on the possibility that the departure of Chick (and potentially Baggs as well) will allow him to showcase his skills in the CFL in 2010 and make the jump.
As for the possibly surprising omissions from this list:
- Having turned himself into an upper-tier CFL quarterback by age 27, Darien Durant would seem to have less far to go than some of the players above. But even the likes of Ricky Ray, Henry Burris and Casey Printers have found themselves trapped no higher up than third on an NFL depth chart, and Durant's size figures to further reduce his chances of ever winning playing time south of the border.
- As mentioned above, Rob Bagg and Chris Getzlaf have both been extremely productive as young receivers. But I'd think a CFL receiver prospect would have to at least rank as above-average in either size or speed by an NFL standard in order to get much of a chance, and neither Bagg nor Getzlaf fits the bill. Which hopefully means that the 'Riders will be able to build their offence around the combination of Durant, Bagg and Getzlaf for a long time to come no matter what else happens around them.
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