On uninspired choices

Following up on this post about Regina's city council elections, the range of possible outcomes in the race for mayor looks far more limited.

Once again, Jim Elliott is on the ballot as the candidate with the strongest policies on paper. But it's hard to hold out much hope for a perennial candidate who's been unable to break 12% of the vote even as the primary challenger - which means that it would be nice to be able to cast a ballot with more chance of meaningfully affecting the result.

On that front, there are two lines of reasoning worth considering.

First, there's the theory that it may be worth casting an anybody-but-Flegel ballot. On name recognition and resources, Jerry Flegel may have a fighting chance of winning - and on policy, it's hard to imagine a worse outcome than endorsing a plan to throw new money at arenas, stadiums and police alongside an implicit expectation of austerity for everything else.

That said, we also need to consider who would stand to benefit from such a campaign. 

Incumbent Michael Fougere is making a few less preposterous promises, and has learned to speak a language that appeals to a relatively wide cross-section of voters. But when it comes time to make any decision, he's regularly shown both a willingness to accede to the wishes of the Saskatchewan Party, and a preference for symbolism over action.

That leaves one other plausible contender for a vote: Sandra Masters, who obviously has Fougere's attention as the main target of his campaign attacks.

On paper, she'd bring a strong resume to the table. In practice, she's been far too willing to resort to anti-tax and austerian language which seems to contradict an otherwise reasonable set of plans and priorities. 

As a result, the choice looks to come down to an evaluation of whether Masters will offer a meaningfully better option than the other candidates with a path to victory in listening if the best happens in the Council votes, and offering any resistance if the worst materializes. And while the difference looks to be incremental rather than polar on both fronts, it still looks to be worth voting for the prospect of something better.

Municipal Election Breakdown - Regina Mayoralty

For election day let's add one more post to the series. The result of the mayoralty race probably isn't in much doubt, but it's still worth taking a slightly closer look at what each of the candidates have to offer and what we can expect later today.

Jim Elliott - video profile

Until Elliott entered the race, it looked far too plausible that Fiacco might get acclaimed. Rather than letting that happen, Elliott has done an effective job at least calling Fiacco out on a few of his more problematic points.

But while it's great that Elliott has stepped up to ensure Fiacco doesn't get an entirely free pass, there's little indication that Elliott's previous electoral experience will position him to draw many voters out to the polls. Indeed, the 2006 Ward 6 council campaign in which Elliott came in a distant second behind Wade Murray saw by far the lowest turnout of any of the city's wards - meaning that there's little reason to expect Elliott to bring out many voters who weren't planning on voting anyway (and conversely plenty of potential support for Brenda Mercer to try to appeal to in that ward).

What will be interesting to see is the comparison between Elliott's result and that of Jim Holmes in 2006. On paper Holmes would seem to have been a stronger candidate, meaning that any significantly better result for Elliott would seem to either point to the stadium issue as galvanizing somewhat more opposition to Fiacco than anything that was presented three years ago, or reflect the media backlash against the CCFR's party concept.

Pat Fiacco - video profile

I've probably said all that needs to be said about Fiacco here. In fairness to Fiacco he at least pays lip service to a broad range of issues - but it's hard not to see that as more a matter of strategy than any personal commitment to any particular policy cause.

Linda White

In theory, White's last-minute entry may have had the potential to radically reshape the race. At the beginning of the race, there was plenty of opportunity for another candidate besides Elliott to become the main opposition to Fiacco by combining a strong stance on the issues with a compelling personal story. And White's poignant personal history combined with her unabashed self-description as a "social service recipient" seemed like a combination with the potential to at least make voters who don't often see the effects of poverty rethink some of their assumptions about it.

Instead, White's campaign seems to have had little public effect - and indeed she hasn't even taken advantage of the city's means of spreading her message about housing through a video statement and online profile. That leaves White as a one-issue candidate who's had less profile talking about her issue than Elliott - and seems likely to ensure that she'll finish a distant third.

Endorsement

The result may be a foregone conclusion, but it'll be for the best if the race is at least reasonably close to encourage a stronger challenger to Fiacco in 2012. With that in mind, the endorsement goes to Jim Elliott.

Municipal roundup

The final lists of nominated candidates for next month's municipal elections are in from Regina and Saskatoon. And there are a few interesting notes based on the last set of contestants to enter the field.

In Regina, the mayoralty race will once again feature three candidates, as Linda White has joined the race against Pat Fiacco and Jim Elliott. It remains to be seen whether either of the challengers will be able to develop much traction, but it's certainly for the best to have a few different perspectives on the city's direction.

Meanwhile, there were also a few noteworthy developments in the council races:

- In Ward 8, Donna Standingready is mostly emphasizing her strong work resume with the provincial government and the First Nations Family Support Centre in challenging Michael O'Donnell. But she also brings a long history of involvement in the Saskatchewan NDP which made her one of Dwain Lingenfelter's named leadership endorsers.

- In Ward 10, the already-crowded race featuring incumbent Jerry Flegel and Chris Szarka now also includes Michael Cassona, whose resume includes the presidency of the Regina Multicultural Association among other community involvement.

- The Ward 1 race won't be quite as crowded as the one in 2006, but both Shawn Kuster and Andy Asherbranner look to be mounting noteworthy challenges to incumbent Louis Browne.

As a whole, the election will feature only two acclamations for Council positions, meaning that Regina voters will have plenty of opportunity to chart the city's course. Candidate bios for the mayoralty, council, and public and separate school board races are available on the City's website.

Likewise in Saskatoon, there looks to be a fairly strong set of races overall: the three acclaimed council positions are balanced out in part by multi-challenger races in Wards 2, 8 and 10, while Lenore Swystun's official entry into the mayoralty race will make her one of four challengers to Don Atchison.

In sum, it looks like we're in for a lively month of municipal campaigning. But we'll have to stay tuned to find out what that will mean for the direction of Saskatchewan's two largest cities in the long run.

Municipal roundup

Needless to say, the biggest news on the municipal front is the not-unexpected announcement that Jim Elliott will challenge Pat Fiacco for the position of mayor of Regina.

Of course, Elliott's previous electoral results haven't been overwhelming. But he's achieved a public profile as one of the leading skeptics about a downtown domed stadium. And while the odds of Elliott beating out Fiacco figure to be long, he should be in an excellent position to start setting up the narrative which could lead to more visible change down the road.

Meanwhile, the Leader-Post has reported on two additional entrants in Regina's municipal races.

In the Ward 5 council seat, John Findura is running again after placing second in 2006. But while it's always a plus to see additional entrants participating in municipal elections, Findura's 2006 profile focusing on traffic, crime and taxes may leave little room for optimism that he'd be an improvement over incumbent Bill Gray (who hasn't yet announced his intentions) or any other competitor.

And in Subdivision 3, former FNUC Vice President and Canadian Education Association councillor Shauneen Pete has announced her candidacy. On paper, it's remarkable that a candidate with Pete's resume would launch herself into an already-contested school board race - but it certainly speaks well for Pete that she's looking to put her experience to work at the school board level.

On your marks...

While talk about this fall's municipal elections probably won't start up in earnest until the end of the summer, let's note a couple of interesting storylines brewing in Regina's council races.

In Ward 6, Brenda Mercer, the former president of the North Central Community Association, looks to be putting together a well-organized challenge to incumbent councillor Wade Murray. But it's not clear that Mercer will have the field to herself, as 2006 CCFR candidate Jim Elliott is turning up in the media as one of a few voices taking a strong line against stadium construction.

Meanwhile, the race in Ward 3 looks to be hotly contested once again. Councillor Fred Clipsham is already facing criticism from the Leader-Post over his choice of priorities this summer - and a combination of bad press and a strong left-labour challenger could make Clipsham's re-election effort a difficult one.

(Edit: added labels.)