On echoes

Plenty of commentators have pointed out the symmetry between this year's election and that of 2008 in terms of low voter turnout and general dissatisfaction with the outcome on the part of all parties. But it's worth noting the similarities between the two campaigns and their aftermath on the part of the NDP in particular.

2008 was treated as a golden opportunity for Jack Layton and the NDP to improve their standing. But even with the most popular leader among the national parties, a well-run campaign, and seemingly uninspiring or downright self-destructive competitors, the NDP ended up with...a small increase in the percentage of the popular vote due to declining overall turnout; a slightly improved seat count which fell far short of the party's number of targeted ridings and left it in fourth place in the Parliamentary standings; and punditry which questioned Layton's strategy of running for the position of Prime Minister, and asked whether he might have hit his ceiling as the party's leader. 

Sound familiar?

Needless to say, it was for the best that Layton was able to continue applying his experience and popularity to the cause of building the NDP for another election cycle. And any attempt to treat the replacement of a generally popular and able leader as a cure-all is as misguided now as it would have been in 2008. 

Indeed, the next election cycle may well match 2011 as one in which a leader with strong recognition and approval is a particularly potent force. 

The Cons look to be deciding whether or not to push Erin O'Toole out the door for making even token efforts toward moderation. And any review process and leadership campaign on their end raises a real possibility of schisms within the party, an extreme shift to the right which could disqualify them as a perceived alternative government, or the Cons' version of Michael Ignatieff's saviour complex and lack of self-awareness. 

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau's negative impressions figure to be thoroughly baked in at this point, meaning that voters may be primed for change by the next (hopefully non-pandemic) election. Yet unlike some commentators, I'd have to see it as unlikely that he'd be pushed without wanting to leave - or that he'll choose to leave government without pursing another shot at a majority as long as there's any hope of winning one. 

To be clear, there's plenty the NDP needs to reckon with as a result of the campaign. Among others, those include the need for clearer and more ambitious policy (an area where I'll again point out COVID response as an obvious lost opportunity), as well as concerns being raised about a centralized campaign which spent plenty in the pursuit of a relatively small number of ridings, yet had difficulty converting those into seats. 

But the fact that there's room to learn lessons doesn't mean it's time to throw out the work the NDP has already done. And it shouldn't come as any surprise if the path of slow progress leading to a breakthrough is one the NDP can navigate again. 

[Edit: fixed typo.]

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Cam Fenton discusses how "strategic" votes for the Libs in the name of climate change figure to be anything but, while David Gray-Donald bluntly describes the Libs' offering as "denialist trash". Maya Menezes examines what we should be looking for in a climate platform, while Simon Donner discusses the need for any climate policy to fit with long-term goals. And Ben Simoni and Melissa Lavery discuss how Canada (and indeed the world) would benefit from a youth climate corps.

- Robert Hiltz writes that Erin O'Toole's mask has come off in the course of the election campaign, while Paul Willcocks discusses how O'Toole has campaigned as a trickster for lack of any ability to appeal to both his party's base and any expanded voter universe. Marieke Walsh reports on the refusal of the vast majority of Con candidates to say whether they've been vaccinated in the midst of a pandemic. And PressProgress exposes Con candidate Les Jickling's support for making health care about profit rather than patient needs. 

- Morna Ballantyne highlights how the Cons' tax baubles can't be equated with a plan to actually make child care available. And Paul Dechene similarly notes that the Cons plan to starve municipalities of desperately-needed infrastructure funding.

- On that front, Natasha Bulowski reports on the priority placed on housing by Canada's municipalities. And Erica Ifill discusses how the Libs' housing schemes have been gimmicky political diversions rather than effective plans to ensure people have the homes they need.

- Finally, Charlie Smith writes about the Robin Hood themes being presented by Jagmeet Singh in contrasting the NDP against the protectors of the wealthy.

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- D.T. Cochrane reviews the parties' platforms and finds the NDP's to be both the most progressive and the most fiscally responsible. And Martin Lukacs and Ben Cuthbert examine the voting records of the Libs and the Cons - finding a regular pattern of the two voting together to block progressive priorities. 

- John Woodside reports on the Climate Action Tracker's conclusion that the Trudeau Libs' climate policies rate as "highly insufficient" to avert climate breakdown.  

- PressProgress continues to offer plenty of important insight into Erin O'Toole and his party - this time pointing out both O'Toole's eagerness to make common cause with health care privatizers, and Brampton South candidate Ramandeep Brar's belief in an entitlement to silence a former worker who dared to raise issues of wage theft and abusive working conditions. 

- Meanwhile, Haseena Manek writes about Angella MacEwen's work to not only win a seat for herself, but build progressive capacity in Ottawa. 

- Finally, Joe Roberts traces the rise of the PPC to anger among Canadians, while noting the glaring need to ensure that people who recognize a need for change perceive a viable left-wing alternative to the politics of bigotry and hate. 

On politicization

There have been a couple of indications as to how Alberta's refusal to take basic health precautions in the face of COVID's fourth wave (and in all likelihood Saskatchewan's as well) can be traced to a willingness to govern based on the O'Toole Cons' campaign strategy rather than the health and well-being of citizens. But as long as we know Kenney is treating the issue solely as one of politics, there are a couple of implications worth raising. 

The first is that it's wrong to say that O'Toole is merely as bad as Kenney and other premiers in their pandemic response. Rather, O'Toole has been relying on them to be worse than they might have been otherwise if a refusal to protect public health didn't fit his political interests. And now, we've managed to reach the point where his valuation of the public interest is below even Kenney's.

But the second is that there may be another political factor at play. The UCP has been considering its options for most of this week. And if it had acted quickly, there would still have been time for people to apply for special ballots - allowing them to vote by mail, or at relatively quiet and low-traffic returning offices.

The deadline to apply for a special ballot expired on September 14. The UCP made the announcement of a state of emergency on September 15. 

As a result, while Kenney's announcement yesterday may not have fit perfectly with the Cons' campaign plans, it might nonetheless have fit with a general desire to distort election results toward the right. 

O'Toole's main concern is surely that a vaccine mandate and health rules will drive voters to the PPC - and anybody starting from a position of pandemic denial is unlikely to hesitate about venturing out to vote. But if there's a risk of also affecting voters who care about responsible pandemic management, they'll face conflicting forces: while they may be less inclined to accept the Cons as good-faith actors, they'll also be less likely to vote at all. 

That might be slightly worse than a wash for O'Toole in the short term, but it's entirely compatible with the interests of the UCP and its movement allies who want to be able to point to some more extreme option as an excuse for their own refusal to listen to anybody to the left of Attila the Hun. And we'll have every reason for suspicion the timing was aimed at that effort if we see Kenney, Scott Moe and their apologists point to PPC results as a driving force in their own future actions. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's election campaign.

- Mohy-Dean Tabbara and Garima Talwar Kapoor examine what the parties are offering to combat poverty, while noting the need for more ambition in the effort. 

- Alex Hemingway points out that while the NDP's platform offers a start, there's plenty of room to raise far more money by taxing the rich with somewhat more (if far from unlimited) zeal. 

- Zoe Yunker examines where the parties stand on renewable energy, noting in particular that the NDP is the only party committed to closing carbon pricing loopholes for fossil-fuel-fired power plants. 

- The Globe and Mail's editorial board contrasts the promise of actual child care spaces from each of the NDP and the Libs against the Cons' belated tax bauble. And Bill Blaikie writes that Erin O'Toole's weasel wording on health care is intended to distract from his plans for increased privatization. 

- Finally, David Beers interviews Chris Tenove about the often-toxic social media environment - and a few ways to try to move toward more positive and productive forms of discussion. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Jeremiah Rodriguez reports on the omission of Canadians with disabilities from much of the election campaign, while pointing out the priorities which should be part of our discussion.

- Justin Ling brings the receipts as to what became of the Libs' promises of pharmacare and prescription drug affordability, and finds that industry lobbying has completely overridden any interest in ensuring Canadians have the medication they need.

- Jim Stanford discusses how the election will shape the future of Canadian labour and employment laws, particularly in determining whether gains which the Libs have reluctantly accepted under NDP pressure will last past the immediate moment. And Katrina Miller and Jamie Kirkpatrick write that the Cons' refusal to accept a just transition away from fossil fuel reliance would have dire consequences from a labour standpoint as well as an environmental one.

- Gregory Beatty calls out the Cons' attempt to portray themselves as moderate while assuring extremist supporters they'll get their way and ignoring some of the most important issues facing the country - along the willingness of far too much of Canada's media to repeat the lies.

- Finally, Ryan Patrick Jones reports on the NDP's costed platform which combines important investments in social priorities with a progressive tax system to keep the books healthy.

#Elxn44 Roundup

Assorted content from Canada's federal election campaign. 

- Seth Klein examines the considerations to take into account in casting a ballot for real climate action. And Michelle Gamage compares the parties' positions on fossil fuel subsidies. 

- Andre Picard asks whether voters will actually be motivated by health care - a key question given the NDP's commitment to head-to-toe health care while the other parties try to keep their plans as vague as possible. And Ken Dryden theorizes that the key issue for voters should be child care. 

- Linda McQuaig calls out Erin O'Toole's blatant bullshitting as a means of smuggling anti-social policy into the halls of power. And the Canadian Labour Congress points out his dishonesty on pensions in particular. 

- Meanwhile, PressProgress fact-checks Justin Trudeau's indignant refusal to accept he's engaged in litigation against Indigenous children against his track record. And Kristy Kirkup reports on the increased risk of fire-related deaths on reserve as one more area in which Indigenous people are facing unnecessary dangers due to a lack of policy action. 

- Samantha Reusch writes about the importance of engaging young voters - even as Elections Canada has made their participation more difficult by eliminating its campus voting program. And Menaka Raman-Wilms reports on Jagmeet Singh's work in meeting younger voters on their platforms of choice. 

- Finally, Alex Marland laments the tendency of voters to cast ballots based on party affiliations rather than local candidates. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- David Miller discusses the steps Canada needs to take to help avert climate disaster - as well as the differences in the federal parties' plans to achieve them (or not). And Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood writes about some crucial climate myths, with the overall message that we can't pretend we're doing enough or on the right track already. 

- David McLaren rightly criticizes the Cons' attempt to entrench precarious gig work as a permanent trap for workers. 

- Elise Stolte discusses how the financialization of the housing market has made it impossible for many people to find affordable and acceptable rental homes. And Patrick Condon highlights the need for far more ambition in ensuring the right to housing is met, while also noting the crucial differences among the parties. 

- Christine Dobby takes a look at voters' choices on telecommunications, with particular attention to the Libs' broken promises to make connections to the world more affordable. 

- Brett Forester examines the parties' platforms on issues facing Indigenous people. 

- PressProgress contrasts the well-known answers to the opioid crisis (including ensuring a safe supply) against Erin O'Toole's insistence on pushing only access to private institutional rehab facilities. 

- Finally, Our Politics offers a slick (if necessarily simplified) look at the policies on offer from the major federal parties. And the Courage Coalition provides its take on the choices facing progressive voters and activists. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- PressProgress offers some background on the agitators disrupting Justin Trudeau's campaign events, while Max Fawcett points out why there's no reason for us to lend any undeserved credence to anti-vaxxers. But Meshall Awan notes that we also shouldn't allow posturing over fringe views to distract us from fundamental issues including the climate crisis.  

- Gillian Steward is rightly appalled at Erin O'Toole's willingness to follow the Kenney/Moe road to disaster in responding to COVID-19 and handling our Medicare system. 

- Adam Radwanski takes note of the seemingly unanimous agreement on the need for a rapid transition to electric vehicles. 

- Camellia Wong criticizes Elections Canada's refusal to allow for on-campus voting as a failure for democracy - which is particularly unacceptable when concentrated within a population which is about to set habits defining its level of participation for decades to come. 

- Finally, Luke Savage discusses why Justin Trudeau's attempt to manufacture a majority for himself is backfiring as voters decide they're ready for change. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign. 

- Sam Hammond argues that we should expect our federal parties to strengthen public education in the wake of a pandemic which has exposed the iniquities faced by disadvantaged students. And Ricardo Tranjan highlights why we can't afford to let parties treat rental housing as a temporary and undesirable phase for citizens.

- Dylan Reid discusses what a wealth tax can accomplish based on our extensive experience with property taxes. 

- John Chidley-Hill reports on Jagmeet Singh's promise to double transit funding and transition to an all-electric transit fleet - combining the goals of improved transportation and a cleaner economy in a single policy. 

- Rawan Abdelbaki writes that Erin O'Toole's attempts to claim to support workers are only part of his running con. And Laura Stone and Marieke Walsh report on O'Toole's laughable attempt to want to increase vaccination rates while refusing to say which of his own candidates can't be bothered to protect against the spread of COVID-19. 

- Finally, while Justin Trudeau tries to frame the campaign around the agitators protesting his appearances, Chris Campbell points out how Singh has faced longstanding and virulent racism in the course of his political work (and indeed throughout his life).

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Jim Stanford writes about the evolution of political and economic thought toward accepting deficits as a readily affordable price of supporting people through a crisis and investing in Canada's future. 

- D.T. Cochrane examines the NDP's plans to close tax loopholes, and finds plenty to be enthusiastic about. And in contrast, PressProgress highlights the complete lack of substance to the Libs' home-flipping tax. 

- Steve Morgan and Linda Silas write about the need to move from talk to action in implementing pharmacare, while Danyaal Raza points out how the Libs are instead backsliding in refusing to discuss it as a priority. 

- Joe Roberts discusses why we shouldn't get overly caught up in horse race coverage of the campaign. Darrell Bricker notes that the NDP may be in an ideal position to keep building on what's already been an impressive surge in support. And Angus Reid polls the contrast between what Canadians actually want to see as an election outcome, and what they expect. 

- Finally, Devon Rowcliffe asks whether voters will be fooled by Erin O'Toole's attempt to be a political chameleon.

[Edit: fixed typo, added link.]

#Elxn44 Roundup

News and notes from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Doug Nesbitt calls out Erin O'Toole's bait-and-switch scheme toward the working class. And PressProgress highlights how the Cons' policy planks for gig workers were actually written by Uber lobbyists to entrench permanent underclass status in law. 

- Meanwhile, D.T. Cochrane examines the Libs' platform from the standpoint of tax fairness and finds that it conspicuously avoids going far in that direction. And Paul Wells notes that incompleteness and incoherence are the main messages to be found in the platform of the party which controlled the timing of the election. 

- David Moscrop writes that the only meaningful answer to a worsening housing crisis is to build large numbers of non-market homes. 

- Bernie Farber argues that hate crimes should be an important issue for voters. But in case anybody was under the illusion that greater police authority is an answer, Stewart Bell reports on a newly-released intelligence report showing that extremist groups are actively recruiting members of Canada's military and police forces. 

- David Coletto offers up Abacus' polling on the "ownership" of issues - finding both a variety of top issues for voters, and plenty of room for movement in determining which party is seen as best equipped to address them. 

- Finally, Heather Scoffield writes that the common problem with the Libs' and Cons' plans is their dependence on implausible assumptions about what our economy will look like. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- Bruce Campbell discusses the connection between the climate crisis and wealth inequality - along with the miserable failure of Lib and Con governments in responding to both. And Canadians for Tax Fairness offers a fact sheet on closing tax loopholes. 

- Erica Lentl interviews Jagmeet Singh about the NDP's plans on LGBTQ2S+ issues, including in seeking to improve on the Libs' version of a conversion therapy ban. And Max Fawcett discusses how climate change is just one of the areas where the O'Toole Cons want to drag Canada backwards, while Randy Boswell points out O'Toole's laughable attempts to distance himself from the regressive positions he trumpeted to win and hold the Cons' leadership.   

- PressProgress points out Lib candidate Douglas Kobayashi's history of opposing not only minimum wage increases, but the existence of minimum wages at all. And Ashley Burke reports on Justin Trudeau's willingness to endorse Raj Saini despite multiple serious allegations of sexual harassment. 

- Meanwhile, 350 Canada offers its first set of endorsements for climate champions on the ballot - including Regina-Lewvan NDP candidate Tria Donaldson. 

- Finally, Andrew Coyne writes that Justin Trudeau has turned the presence of protesters into a claim of victimhood without addressing the problems with his campaign generally. And Don Martin discusses how the Libs' efforts to make the campaign all about Trudeau have backfired due to voters' increased skepticism. 

#Elxn44 Roundup

The latest from Canada's federal election campaign.

- The Maple examines how the timing and format of the campaign chosen by Justin Trudeau could hardly have been designed for lower expected turnout.

- PressProgress looks into the background of Lib candidate Mary-Jane Bennett as both a cheerleader for privatization, and a senior fellow connected to climate change and residential school deniers at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. 

- Jim Stanford discusses how the Cons' plans predictably involve crushing austerity for Canadians in the name of balancing budgets, but no plan to actually reach that outcome. Stephanie Taylor points out how Erin O'Toole is rejecting the latest round of global agreements on climate change. And Aidan Chamandy talks to experts about how that choice to backtrack would violate Canada's commitments under the Paris agreement.

- Meanwhile, Matthew Alexandris points out how the NDP's benefit for renters can put a substantial dent in poverty and homelessness. And Pat Armstrong and Hugh Armstrong make the case to build a truly universal and complete health care system.

- Finally, Loretta Fisher interviews Paul Taylor about the importance of working through the political system to make sure nobody is left behind.

#Elxn44 Roundup

This and that from the federal election campaign.

- Canadians for Tax Fairness sets out its platform for a fair and equitable tax system. And Katrina Vandenheuvel makes the case for a tax on windfall pandemic profits in particular. 

- Sue Capon reports that Revera's response to being required to provide basic protections to people in long-term care has been to start slashing staff. Which makes it particularly significant that Jagmeet Singh is pushing to nationalize Revera in particular as part of a plan to take for-profit operators out of the long-term care system. 

- PressProgress reports on just some of the appalling statements of Con candidate Arnold Viersen which have been deemed acceptable by Erin O'Toole, including denouncing even basic COVID response measures as "tyranny" while doubting whether there is any pandemic at all. And the Canadian Labour Congress points out how O'Toole is speaking out of both sides of his mouth in pretending to care about pension protections after working to eliminate them both in Stephen Harper's government and in the most recent Parliament. 

- Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry discusses how Justin Trudeau is failing to making any case for himself to remain in power. And Olivia Stefanovich notes how Singh has presented a compelling contrast to Trudeau for progressive voters in particular. 

- Finally, Luke Savage interviews Avi Lewis about the prospect that this election may prove a turning point toward a Green New Deal for Canada. 

Thursday Morning Links

This and that for your Thursday reading.

- Bryan Eneas reports on the discovery of 751 unmarked graves near a single residential school in Saskatchewan. And Samantha Beattie reports on a Catholic priest's attempt to justify the genocide committed through the residential school system, while John Paul Tasker reports on Erin O'Toole's predictable choice to demand the uncritical celebration of Canada Day rather than allowing for any meaningful recognition of the lives and culture lost to the systemic oppression of Indigenous people. 

- AFP reports on a new draft IPCC report finding that severe climate impacts are closer than we've generally assumed. Haroon Siddique reports on a newly-developed definition of ecocide intended to allow for wanton environmental destruction to be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court. Jessica Corbett writes about the social cost of carbon emissions as a factor which should be central to decision-making - but instead largely gets ignored in favour of raw GDP. And Michelle Gamage offers a reminder of the dangers of focusing on distant "net zero" targets rather than actual emission reductions. 

- Daniela Gabor discusses why we shouldn't expect private capital to transition us to a clean economy, and instead need to push the public sector to lead the way. And Steven Morris reports on the Welsh government's decision to suspend further road construction as a noteworthy example of the type of shift in priorities needed to avert a full climate breakdown.  

- Finally, Karl Nerenberg warns that a thoroughly unnecessary federal election is on the way due to the Trudeau Libs' preference for an unchecked majority over a minority Parliament in which they're already able to pass progressive legislation when they bother to advance it. 

Inputs and outputs

There's rightly been plenty of pushback against the Cons' sad excuse for a climate change plan. But it's worth highlighting that there's one way in which the principle behind it could accomplish more than the Libs' one-sided approach to carbon pricing.

It would seem too obvious to bear mention that the way to get the most bang for any given amount of carbon price collected would be to ensure that it operates to reduce emissions at both steps of its operation: creating incentives for people to reduce their own emissions to avoid having to pay it in the first place, and also ensuring that money collected gets put into emission-reducing activity. 

In 2019-2020, the total amount collected by the federal government was about $2.8 billion, with that amount increasing with the carbon price in the years to come. But there's nothing additional to ensure - or even incentivize - the use of that money to actually reduce emissions, as most of it has instead been returned in the form of an unrestricted rebate.

That means the Libs' choice has been to limit the effect of the current carbon price to the first step. There's an incentive to minimize carbon-intensive activity to avoid paying the initial price - but nothing to ensure the amount collected actually gets reinvested in emission reduction.

In contrast, the Cons' plan at least somewhat addresses the second step. In theory, the money collected as a carbon price would be used specifically for the purchase of carbon-efficient products.

Of course, it would take some work to design a manifestation of that theory less efficient or fair than the Cons' proposal for individual savings accounts tied to carbon levies actually paid. The Cons are insisting on creating a corporate-administered bureaucracy to dictate individual decisions, while doing nothing to ensure that money collected in the name of emission reductions is applied on a scale sufficient to make a difference.

And more importantly, the Cons are dedicated to keeping the carbon price at so low a level as to be counterproductive in the broader fight against a climate breakdown. There's value in trying to double the impact of each dollar of carbon price collected, but it pales in comparison to the demand to keep the actual price at under a third of the amount included in the Libs' plans.

All of which is to say that while the Cons' plan is predictably the worst on offer among the major federal parties, it also highlights one of the longstanding weaknesses in the Libs' scheme as well. And that should open the door for alternatives which use the strengths of both - rather than limiting our climate change discussion to a debate over the merits of the Libs' one-sided price.

Thursday Morning Links

This and that for your Thursday reading.

- Armine Yalnizyan highlights how our failure to put adequate resources into the caring sector stands in the way of both a COVID recovery and sustainable longer-term economic development.

- Jessica Wildfire writes that our economy has been set up to be unaffordable for nearly everybody in order to allow profits to be skimmed off the top of everything we do. And Bob Lord discusses how a fair and progressive tax system is a must to avoid the toxic concentration of wealth in the hands of a greedy few.

- Joe Nocera comments on the importance of seizing a moment in which workers and unions are rightly seen as a necessary collective counterweight to corporate control.

- John Clarke writes about the need to develop class solidarity across international borders, rather than presuming that the fate of individual politicians or states represents an acceptable proxy for the public interest. And Lachlan Markey notes that the U.S. is seeing a concerted effort to push the Biden administration leftward. 

- Finally, Aaron Wherry discusses Erin O'Toole's failed attempt to have the Cons pay so much as lip service to the climate crisis. And Gillian Steward points out how the Cons have chosen to render themselves irrelevant to discussion around one of the most important issues we face - particularly as the implausible attempt to undermine even modest action through the courts has failed.

On plausible alternatives

One of the perennial frustrations in following federal politics is the tendency of media coverage to default toward a Lib-Con duopoly. That pattern typically manifests itself when polling data and other circumstances create an obvious opening for an alternative, and is particularly striking when one of those parties is still treated as the primary alternative even while trailing the NDP and votes in seats. (See: federal politics from 2011-2015 and Ontario politics today.)

Of course, there are reasons for that: most notably, two-party horse race coverage is far easier to generate than discussion of the nuances of multi-party democracy. And particularly in the case of the Cons being propped up as the primary alternative to the Libs, there are some explanations which hold at least a modicum of validity (such as what figures to be a fairly firm floor based on the Cons' prairie base), and some which are rather less justifiable (such as media outlets' systematic backing of the Cons no matter how inept or destructive they are). 

But while we can count on conventional media to ignore the prospect of a new contender emerging, there seem to be plenty of forces coming together to raise the possibility of the NDP becoming the primary alternative to the Libs in an election this year.

We're seeing endless election speculation based on the Cons' pitiful performance. And it's true that in a two-party campaign, the Libs would figure to be well positioned to improve their position compared to a party with an unpopular leader, and with no obvious direction other than to keep running well-worn actions from an increasingly outdated Harper playbook.

But the NDP has been creeping up in the party standings, while Jagmeet Singh's approval rating has regularly ranked at the top of the pack (due in no small part to his party's work ensuring people have what they need through a pandemic, rather than looking to undercut support like the Cons have done). 

And this weekend may have seen the Cons' membership firmly reject the very possibility of making up ground.

Just before the Cons' national convention, David Colletto offered a snapshot of the types of voters who aren't currently in their camp, but might be willing to consider them. And the convention proceedings could hardly have been scripted better to repudiate the interests of young people, who recognize the need for racial justice and view climate change as a serious issue.

None of the above means that Erin O'Toole won't put on the usual mask of fake moderation. And indeed, he's spent much of his time since winning the Cons' leadership trying to pose as a worker-friendly populist, while begging people not to look at the track record of himself or his party. 

But that pitch always relied on people actually finding him believable - which doesn't appear to be working.

Which means that we're at least into a position where there's a plausible path toward the NDP pushing ahead of the Cons as the social democratic alternative to a Lib government which has done plenty to cater to the corporate class. (Consider this the British Columbia model transposed onto the federal scene.) And we may soon reach the point where anybody looking for the most likely party to overtake the Libs - and the most plausible narrative for change - will have to look to the NDP.

Monday Morning Links

Miscellaneous material to start your week.

- Jim Brumby writes about the multiple growing disruptions to economic health and security which could be addressed by a wealth tax.

- Kim Siever highlights how the oil industry continues to scam Alberta while pretending that its interest is that of the province - which of course applies with equal force in Saskatchewan. The Energy Mix points out that the fossil fuel sector is marked by disproportionate returns to capital for the amount paid in wages - making a transition entirely affordable as long as we focus on the public good rather than aiming primarily to enrich the few billionaires who want to add even more to their fortunes. And Cameron Fenton notes that Keystone XL is just the latest example of the Libs refusing to act consistently with their rhetoric about climate change. 

- Peter Giger offers a reminder of the multiple environmental tipping points which could see us fall into irreversible climate breakdown if we don't transition to a clean economy. And Brian Kahn writes that the decisions we make about the oil industry this year will echo long into the future.

- Tom Cardoso reports on analysis showing over a million Canadians engaged in overnight holiday travel in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Globe and Mail's editorial board asks why we're still allowing the coronavirus to spread to Canada on international flights. Laura Woodward reports on Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine's call to finally end the risk of spread through in-person restaurant dining. And the Star's editorial board argues that we should be doing far more to ensure that long-term care homes don't turn into death sentences for the people who raised and nurtured us.

- Finally, Jen Gerson writes that the Cons should be looking to excise the violent alt-right as a matter of self-preservation as well as civic duty. And David Climenhaga notes that the problem runs far deeper than Derek Sloan alone.