Municipal Election Breakdown - Regina Ward 3

I've mentioned before how fiercely contested the race figures to be in Ward 3, with the top two finishers from the 2003 and 2006 races joined by longtime school board member John Conway and newcomer Shirley Dixon. And not surprisingly with four strong candidates in the race, there are plausible scenarios where any one of them emerges victorious. But what should we be expecting come Wednesday?

Fred Clipsham - video profile

While Clipsham has faced criticism from a few different angles in the lead up to this fall's election, he still ranks as the favourite to hold the seat after mounting a surprisingly strong win in the face of tough opposition in 2006.

That said, it's still an open question as to whether it's for the best if he does hold on. Clipsham looks to be splitting the difference between parroting the "vision for 2020" line recited by so many of the incumbents, and discussing some potential progress on recycling, downtown development and culture. But for Ward 3 residents who would like to see their councillor play a more forceful role rather than going along with the party line, there's ample reason to want to see Clipsham dislodged from the seat.

John Conway - website

In contrast, Conway could serve as an ideal leader of the opposition on council: as a school board member he was the lone incumbent to lend his profile to the CCFR in 2006, and of course any candidate willing to discuss the problems with a city run based on the priorities of the business lobby looks to provide a much-needed challenge to the city's conventional wisdom.

But while he'd make an ideal gadfly on council, there's reason to wonder whether Conway would face some difficulty in actually working with other councillors to the extent there's an opportunity to implement changes. Which means that while Conway us probably the strongest challenger to Clipsham on paper, there may be reason for concern about what might happen if he succeeds in winning the seat.

Shirley Dixon - video profile

Having noted the contrasting problems with Clipsham and Conway, Dixon looks to be an ideal mix of the two in theory, combining a strong progressive platform with a willingness and ability to cooperate with others to get results.

But it's not yet clear that Dixon has developed enough of a profile to put herself in contention in a race against three high-profile competitors. Which means that the issue surrounding Dixon is less whether she'd would be effective if elected than whether she's actually within striking distance of winning the seat.

Don Young - video profile

In at least half of the contested wards, two-time-runner-up Young would rank at the top of my list of candidates thanks to his mention of union relations, arts and culture, transit and downtown development as policy priorities.

But in Ward 3, the fact that he ranks those concerns behind crime and traffic leaves him to the right of his competitors. And considering that Young finished a fairly distant second in 2006 even with an election's worth of experience and support behind him, there's reason to doubt that the formula will work any better this time out in any event.

Endorsement

With four at least somewhat appealing candidates in the mix, it shouldn't be surprising that this is the one ward where I'll hedge somewhat in my endorsement. For voters who figure that there's little chance of much positive happening on the next council due to the state of the other races (or who expect Dixon to end up at the back of the pack), there would be every reason to choose Conway over his competitors to try to move the Overton window to the left over the next few years. But I'm optimistic both that there will be a chance for the next Ward 3 councillor to form alliances with a few other progressives across the city to make some real policy changes, and that the race will be close enough for all of the candidates to stay in the running - so my endorsement goes to Shirley Dixon.

A few municipal notes

For those looking for reason to be excited about the possibilities in this fall's municipal elections, look no further than Heather McIntyre's run to unseat Jocelyn Hutchinson in Regina's Ward 2 (first publicly announced on Kent Peterson's blog). McIntyre was one of the main forces behind the scenes of Yens Pedersen's remarkably successful leadership campaign, and her candidacy looks to be in great shape due to the enthusiasm that's built among Regina's NDP supporters since the leadership race ended.

For those looking out for an old favourite in a new role, longtime MLA Glenn Hagel has formally declared his intention to run for mayor of Moose Jaw. So far there are two other candidates in the race, but neither with much political profile that I'm aware of - making Hagel the early frontrunner.

And for those looking for a multi-candidate pileup, look no further than Regina's Ward 3, where Don Young's announcement that he'll once again join the perpetually-crowded race leaves him facing off against John Conway, Shirley Dixon and possibly incumbent Fred Clipsham (who still hasn't formally announced his intentions).

We'll find out before too long who will emerge from the pack to win the council seat this fall. But barring some unexpected influx of challengers elsewhere, there may be as many nominally left-wing candidates finishing as also-rans in Ward 3 as there are similarly progressive candidates mounting serious challenges in all of Regina's other wards combined. And I have to wonder if the city as a whole would be better served if the big names looked at using their greater visibility either to take aim at some of council's more reactionary members, or better yet to take on Pat Fiacco in the mayoral vote - rather than adding more names to the ballot in a ward whose representative is bound to be a comparatively progressive vote on council no matter who wins.

(Edit: fixed wording.)