On shared values

One of the main attempts to downplay the long-term significance of the NDP's Quebec breakthrough has revolved around the theory that the party's new wave of support involves a set of voters with unreconcilable values. But a recent CROP poll suggests that the NDP may actually have a more unified base of support than its main national rival:

Sur l'axe droite-gauche, les électeurs du NPD s'inscrivent dans la moyenne québécoise, 61 % d'entre eux favorisant la répartition de la richesse, une position identifiée à la gauche, selon le sondeur, contre 39 % qui encouragent la création de la richesse, une idée dite de «droite».
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Parmi l'ensemble de la population, la droite recueille 41 % d'appuis contre 59 % pour la gauche. Il est intéressant de noter que 56 % des électeurs du Parti conservateur se classent eux-mêmes à gauche de l'échiquier politique, contre 44 % qui se disent de droite.

So while the NDP's support does include a substantial number of voters classified on the right side of the spectrum, its 61-39 split makes for a more consistent position than either Quebec as a whole or the Cons as a competitor. And in fact, it's the Cons - even after being reduced to what would seem to be their core voters - who face both a more even split in the composition of their vote, and the reality that a majority of the party's supporters disagree with its policy direction.

Of course, it's worth noting that Leger obtained some radically different results with a question based on self-identification rather than policy preferences. But given that the parties figure to be far more likely to talk about underlying policies and values than left/right labels, there's some reason to think that by focusing on the inequality generated by the Cons' corporate-first economic policies, the NDP will actually have an easier time keeping its current Quebec support together than its main national competitor.