On case studies

Chantal Hebert draws pretty much the exact opposite conclusion as I do from the opportunities raised by a close leadership race. But yesterday's debate offered us a neat reminder as to whether we should buy into the theory that the NDP will continue its success in Quebec if and only if it hands a completely open-ended mandate to Thomas Mulcair.

While there were plenty of jokes about Mario Dumont's ideological positioning compared to that of the NDP, it's worth keeping in mind the track record of the ADQ which so many commentators have pointed to as an example of fleeting success in Quebec.

For 13 years, the ADQ was identified almost entirely with an increasingly popular leader in Dumont - leading to the 2007 election where Dumont's coattails led it to official opposition status despite an organization far weaker than that of its main opponents. So how did that total reliance on a single charismatic leader turn out?

Well, Dumont led the party into another election in 2008 - where his profile couldn't stop the ADQ from losing official party status. And so its machinery mostly went idle until this past year, when it's been repurposed to support another leader-based effort focused on Francois Legault.

Naturally, I'd think there are lessons to be learned from the ADQ's quick rise and fall. But surely "don't rely too much on a single leader" has to be near the top of the list - making it downright bizarre how many commentators seem eager to push the NDP into doing just that.

On allegiances

It's always worth noting when the public manages to get a glimpse behind the Cons' facade of party unit - as has happened again today. But more significant than the mere fact that there are some internal battles looming is the strategy the Harper regime is appparently using to try to quell them:

A key goal of the postmortems is to put an end to infighting between the provincial supporters of the Quebec Liberal Party and the Action Démocratique du Québec, who make up much of the Conservative team in Quebec.

During the federal campaign, a number of prominent positions were in the hands of ADQ supporters, and many Conservatives with ties to the provincial Liberals blamed them for the poor results.

The clear directive from the Conservative hierarchy is for all Quebec supporters to put their federal allegiances first and foremost...

Conservative organizers are being urged to focus their energies on governing, and to limit their contribution to the current Quebec campaign.

Now, it may seem that Pauline Marois should be sending Harper a thank-you card for the directive. All indications are that the PQ is at least in striking distance of the Charest Liberals - and to the extent Harper succeeds in ordering any substantial chunk of Charest's party to sit out the provincial election, the likelihood of a PQ government increases accordingly.

That is, assuming that Harper's order actually sways anybody to stay out of the provincial campaign. But it's hard to see how the Cons can really expect to have deeper roots than the provincial parties (particularly the Libs). And one could easily foresee most provincial organizers calling the Cons' bluff and severing their federal ties - or at least viewing the other side of the divide with even more suspicion.

So the request to stand down from the provincial race poses loads of potential downsides for the Cons and for those who would heed the call. And all in the interests of...what, exactly? Last anybody checked, there was no indication that even most cabinet ministers had any particular ability to influence the course of Harper's government, meaning that organizers can't expect to get much done merely by focusing on "governing".

At best, one might figure that the Cons are simply looking to lock in half of the internal divide. While there doesn't seem to be any reason to think Charest's party would want to abandon ship in the middle of a run for a majority, it could be that supporters of a weakened ADQ will be willing to make the federal Cons into their main political vehicle.

But that seems to be an awfully remote possibility compared to the virtual certainty that the call to abandon provincial politics will both boost the PQ, and drive away Con organizers who actually care about both levels of government. And it wouldn't be the least bit surprising if the latest gambit ends up backfiring even more than most of the Cons' efforts to deal with Quebec.