As promised, let's take a look at each of the NDP's leadership candidates through the lens of my three basic considerations - starting in reverse alphabetical order with Brian Topp.
1. What direction will he set for the NDP?
Topp has been more clear than any other candidate in the leadership race as to the basic set of values he'll apply, with equality presented as the core goal. And while his policies aren't always the most detailed, they nicely fuse that core value with a healthy dose of objection to the unfairness of the status quo.
If there's any reason for concern on this point, it has less to do with Topp's current policy message than the question of whether he'll follow the pattern of spending more time repairing the federal fiscal framework than using it to achieve the goal of greater equality. But on the balance this looks to be a strength.
2. How will he respond when pushed off course?
And not surprisingly, Topp has lived up to his billing as a strategist by handling controversy well throughout the leadership campaign. He's met flawed calls from his own campaign with genuine denunciation, and defused questions both fair (as to his plans to win a seat in Parliament) and unfair (as to whether his desire for fairer taxes should be treated as harming charities) - all while taking little time to pivot back to his own intended message track.
3. How do his personal traits affect his ability to reach the destination implied by the answer to question 1?
This of course is the big question for Topp. I'm far from convinced of Paul Wells' theory that charm can be learned or swept aside as a consideration for the NDP. And even if it can be improved with time, Topp figures to need the better part of the lead-up to 2015 to approach the profile and HOAG factor of a couple of his competitors - particularly if he faces the Cons' attack machine while trying to train up to the role.
But Topp has improved his camera presence during the course of the leadership campaign, suggesting that there's room for some growth.
Conclusion
I'd still consider the ideal role for Topp to be that of strategic second-in-command alongside a more charismatic leader. But in a campaign where most of the candidates who fit that bill seem skeptical of Topp's direction, such an outcome may not be an option. And Topp has a plausible path to the leadership if he can convince NDP members to put values over charm - at least for now.
[Edit: fixed wording.]
Topp has charm. He was this way of making people feel soothed & reassured. Probably the result of his harnessing of confidence & sincerity.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is, it's the type of charm that only older - probably more western - voters would appreciate. In this, he's pretty much the bizzaro world version of Stephen Harper. Yeah, I know it's popular to characterize Harper as the evil offspring of a self-impregnating Dilbert...but the guy does exude confidence & sincerity...even if he's only sincere about confidently ramming a **** up your ***.
It's a problem because the type of voters who appreciate characters like Harper & Topp are not going to vote NDP right now. We're living in a time of high commodity prices, and there's a collective "gold rush" mentality taking hold. It's base, it's selfish, it's a "get off my lawn" mentality that only the Conservative party can represent.
Were this the year 2000, or the end of the commodity boom...I'd believe Topp's claims of attracting those prairie voters. But it's not that kind of time. The NDP needs to take BC, Ontario, Quebec, & the Atlanctic provinces. And, from my point of view, only Nathan Cullen & Thomas Mulcair have the type of charisma those voters crave.
Excellent post on an excellent blog. You did however forget to mention what is to me the main reason Topp supporters should seriously consider placing their support elsewhere: He doesn't have a seat. Spin from Topp's campaign aside, we've been taking a beating in the House and in the media due to our over-long leadership race. We simply cannot afford the time it would take waiting for a byelection to be called. These are special circumstances, and the party needs to hit the ground running the moment the new leader is declared.
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult to exaggerate how important this is.
TheIronist,
ReplyDeleteYour reasoning betrays an over-reliance on one too many newspaper opinion columns. I suggest you take a break from those foreign narratives & pay attention to your own better instincts.
Most Canadians do not listen to pundits & opinion columnists. If people actually based their decisions on the words of people like Wells, Coyne & Hebert...the NDP would not have even achieved third party status in the last election. Instead, voters went over the heads of their supposed "betters" in the media & made the party the official opposition.
The current interm leader does have a problem communicating in English. But that doesn't mean MP's like Megan Leslie, Charlie Angus, & Pat Martin aren't kicking ass & taking names. And while some polls do show a slide (varies), they reflect a moment in time where <span>the front bench has disappeared & the leader rests in a grave</span>.
And when you read any columnist who bases their opinions on polls, remember that those polls only reflect the views of a tiny minority of Canadians. If most don't pay attention to columnists, even fewer watch parliament feeds & respond to pollsters.
For the record, I am not supporting Brian Topp for leader. But I'd like to think there are better reasons to withhold your vote from him than "<span>cannot afford the time it would take waiting for a byelection to be called".</span>
<span>TheIronist,
ReplyDeleteYour reasoning betrays an over-reliance on newspaper opinion columns. I suggest you take a break from those foreign narratives & pay attention to your own better instincts.
Most Canadians do not listen to pundits & opinion columnists. If people actually based their decisions on the words of people like Wells, Coyne & Hebert...the NDP would not have even achieved third party status in the last election. Instead, voters went over the heads of their supposed "betters" in the media & made the party the official opposition.
The current interm leader does have a problem communicating in English. But that doesn't mean MP's like Megan Leslie, Charlie Angus, & Pat Martin aren't kicking ass & taking names. And while some polls do show a slide (varies), they reflect a moment in time where <span>the front bench has disappeared & the leader rests in a grave</span>.
And when you read any columnist who bases their opinions on polls, remember that those polls only reflect the views of a tiny minority of Canadians. If most don't pay attention to columnists, even fewer watch parliament feeds & respond to pollsters.
For the record, I am not supporting Brian Topp for leader. But I'd like to think there are better reasons to withhold your vote from him than "<span>cannot afford the time it would take waiting for a byelection to be called".</span></span>
Further to Dan's comment I'll second the view that we shouldn't exaggerate the seat issue - if anything I'm disappointed Topp fed the spin by saying he'll ask somebody to step aside rather than making the argument that he can do equally important work building the party outside Parliament.
ReplyDeleteActually, I'd think the combination of Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces will largely be a matter of pointing out how the gold rush mentality gets in the way of more stable economic development - and as best I can tell all three regions figure to suffer over the next few years, creating a huge opening for that argument.
ReplyDeleteBut the different types of character are certainly worth considering, and I don't disagree with your assessment as to which candidates are at the top of the list when it comes to personality.
I will respectfuly disagree with both of you, as my perspective is that of one fighting in the trenches, and not that of someone peering out into the world from the distorted Ottawa bubble. I agree it's possible to overstate the significance of the not-having-a-seat issue, but disagree that I'm overstating it in this instance. When I think of our current slippage in Quebec, and add to this the time it will take the for the new Leader to transition into her/his position, bringing along, naturally, all of the expected new people to the OLO, then add the time it will take for the new critics to get up to speed on their new files (granted, not all critics will have completely new files, but likely most will), I will say it again: we will need to hit the ground running. Further postponements will not do. It would be one thing if Topp were some kind of wildly charismatic guy who, upon winning the leadership, could proceed to charm the country sans a seat, but I don't believe he is. Neither do most people I speak to.
ReplyDeleteAs well, my colleagues in Quebec are getting nervous, for the very reasons I cited in my earlier posts. And the only polls that one should really pay attention to in Quebec are the ones done by Crop.
That said, Topp is a sharp fellow and an excellent writer. I love reading his columns. That he's an NDPer makes me proud, indeed. Still, I won't be able to support him for Leader--in fact, among the alleged front runners, it will ultimately be "Anybody But Topp."
I will respectfuly disagree with both of you, as my perspective is that of one fighting in the trenches, and not that of someone peering out into the world from the distorted Ottawa bubble. I agree it's possible to overstate the significance of the not-having-a-seat issue, but disagree that I'm overstating it in this instance. When I think of our current slippage in Quebec, and add to this the time it will take the for the new Leader to transition into her/his position, bringing along, naturally, all of the expected new people to the OLO, then add the time it will take for the new critics to get up to speed on their new files (granted, not all critics will have completely new files, but likely most will), I will say it again: we will need to hit the ground running. Further postponements will not do. It would be one thing if Topp were some kind of wildly charismatic guy who, upon winning the leadership, could proceed to charm the country sans a seat, but I don't believe he is. Neither do most people I speak to.
ReplyDeleteAs well, my colleagues in Quebec are getting nervous, for the very reasons I cited in my earlier posts. And the only polls that one should really pay attention to in Quebec are the ones done by Crop.
That said, Topp is a sharp fellow and an excellent writer. I love reading his columns. That he's an NDPer makes me proud, indeed. Still, I won't be able to support him for Leader--in fact, among the alleged front runners, it will ultimately be "Anybody But Topp."