Thursday, June 23, 2011

Riding the wave

A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out that the NDP's level of Canada-wide support is in line with other parties who have been seen as national contenders for government, in direct contrast to the Canadian Alliance at the point when it saw a merger as necessary for further progress. But the flip side of the NDP's widespread support as of May 2 was the lack of any region which could be seen as a current stronghold - both as a reliable source of a large number of seats, and as an area where there's enough public consensus in support of the party to make fund-raising and volunteer appeals more likely to succeed.

Which means that CROP's latest Quebec numbers - showing the NDP rising to 53% - may be far more significant than one might think in looking merely at possible seat outcomes.

If the NDP can maintain or build on that level of support, then it won't need to rely on vote splits to keep its current seat count in Quebec. And perhaps more importantly, a province with a true majority of NDP supporters would also figure to offer highly fertile territory for fund-raising and longer-term organizational clout which can help to keep the NDP competitive across the country - much like the Cons' Alberta fortress has enabled that party to spend its way to seats elsewhere.

Mind you, the NDP's task in Quebec organization-building will require even more work if the goal is to establish a base to support operations across Canada, rather than merely assembling a ground game commensurate with the NDP's seat count. But the potential reward would seem to make it well worth the effort to try.

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