Monday, December 13, 2010

On battlegrounds

The headline from the latest Leger poll is that the NDP has caught the Libs in Quebec - and I certainly don't want to downplay the importance of that news. But I'm not sure that there isn't an even more significant takeaway from the Leger results.

After all, plenty of other polling has shown the three national parties in an effective tie in Quebec in smaller sample sizes. But those have generally seen the logjam in the mid to high teens, leaving the Bloc poised to increase its seat count with its usual 40% share of the vote.

In contrast, Leger is showing the NDP and Libs tied at 21% - with the Bloc dropping to a 34% level where it almost certainly can't count on vote splits breaking its way.

So if Leger's polling is on target, then the NDP hasn't just caught up to the Libs, but has done so at a level where there should be plenty of seats up for grabs. And that could make the results in Quebec far more interesting than the current conventional wisdom seems to expect.

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