On harmonized interests

Every time the possibility of a vote of non-confidence in the Harper Cons is raised, one of the main arguments against the possibility of an election is the need for the NDP, Bloc and Libs to all join forces when a peak for one in the polls often coincides with a trough for another. And while the claim that diverging poll numbers will always leave somebody prepared to support the Cons loses some force when all three opposition parties define themselves primarily as the alternative to Harper in one form or another, it's still all too true that we haven't yet reached the point where all three opposition parties actually vote to topple the Cons.

But as alluded to in this post, to the extent a perfect storm is needed to create a situation where all three opposition parties would vote non-confidence at the same time, that may have arrived in the form of an issue which plays nicely for all three opposition parties in different ways.

That issue is the sales tax harmonization which has been pushed by the Cons for years - but has just started to give rise to massive public outrage now that two provinces have taken up the offer. So let's take a closer look at how a campaign focused on the HST would affect all four parties in Parliament - and in particular how a campaign fought on the issue could take enough of a bite out of the Cons for all three other parties to benefit.

It's no secret that the Cons see finger-pointing and distraction tactics as their best hope in dealing with the HST. But no matter how much they try to throw blame around, they haven't succeeded in evading responsibility.

And that spells disaster for a party whose core brand is based in large part on populism and tax-cutting. With provincial parties from all sides of the spectrum laying rightful blame on the Cons for paying off the provinces to raise taxes on their citizens, the Cons look to see at least some of their core support either sitting out an election based on the HST, or outright turning on them.

Mind you, I wouldn't expect any of the other parties to go to any great lengths in trying to win over the tax-cutting crowd. But for the NDP, any tarnish on the Cons' populist image figures to feed perfectly into the "On Your Side" message premiered at the Halifax convention. And that would raise the potential for a substantial amount of the Western populist swing vote to turn from the Cons' column to the NDP's (based on B.C. voters outraged about the current harmonization plan and Saskatchewan and Manitoba voters who recognize the future risk for their provinces), while also likely opening some doors in Ontario as well.

While the NDP fights harmonization, the Libs will likely be perfectly content to let the Cons take a PR hit, while presenting themselves as the party which actually defends the idea in principle while using the issue primarily as a matter of bad governance and deception on the part of the Cons. And indeed the Libs may be able to retake their longtime mantle as the party of big business by actually defending tax harmonization (as they too encouraged in office) while the Cons hide away and try to deny any responsibility.

And what about the Bloc? At the moment, Quebec's provincial sales tax is "blended" and administered provincially rather than being harmonized like those of the other provinces - and the Bloc has long argued that Quebec should receive inducements along the lines of those offered to the other provinces for that state of affairs. Which means that the HST as an election issue sets up exactly the kind of provincial grievance and claim to federal money which would allow the Bloc to stand out from its competitors as putting Quebec first.

So what would happen if the issue plays out based on those lines, resulting in the HST serving as the main issue damaging the Cons in different ways in different regions? I wouldn't expect the Libs to get anywhere near majority territory based on their taking a pro-harmonization stance - but it's not at all outside the realm of possibility that the damage to the Cons' brand could result in the Libs nonetheless taking a fairly solid lead as the Cons drop below their usual floor. The Bloc would be able to play up the lack of funding to Quebec against all of the national parties, meaning that they'd stand a strong chance of maintaining if not improving their current position. And the NDP would probably benefit the most of all, adding the anti-HST vote to its current level of support.

Let's say that results in a division of the vote along the lines of Libs 32, Cons 27, NDP 21, Bloc 10, Greens 8 - all numbers within a plausible HST-based shift from current support levels. Does anybody think that a single one of the opposition parties would have a second thought about pushing for an election which produces that outcome?

Of course, the issue may not play out exactly as I theorize above. And the picture may get a lot more messy if the Doer government undercuts the NDP's anti-harmonization message by going along with the scheme, or if the Libs try to take an anti-HST stance for themselves at the federal level. But the potential should be apparent for the opposition parties to see the HST as just the issue which can both topple the Cons from power and strengthen their own hands if they all play their cards right.