On barriers to growth

Blogging Horse points out one interesting twist in Elizabeth May's latest musings about where she might run next. But the more significant fact about May's new position seems to be less the number of ridings she's targeted in the past than the number (and nature) that she's keeping open for the next election:

Michael Bernard, head of the Green Party's national communications team said Bruce-Grey Owen Sound is among ridings under consideration for a run by May, given the strong showing the Greens received in last fall's vote.

"Owen Sound was our second-highest riding in the 2008 federal election, so certainly it's one of the ridings being looked at," Bernard said.
...
Bernard said the Green Party is also keeping an eye on two byelections -- after the resignation of MPs in Nova Scotia and B. C. -- and whether May should run as the party's candidate there. Both votes must be held before October, but a general election could precede the two byelections.

Bernard said Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound is among "seven or eight" ridings across Canada that May is considering running in if an election is called this year. Canada has 308 federal ridings.

So what's wrong with May's indecisiveness? Well, it seems fairly safe to figure that the "seven or eight" ridings that she might run in likely reflect the Greens' best perceived chances to win a seat, or at least expand their popular support. And the inclusion of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound on the list would seem to confirm that theory.

But as long as May has declared her interest in those ridings without choosing one, there's a strong disincentive for anybody else to organize their own campaign in any of them - not only because of the possibility that May would decide to parachute her way in regardless of what anybody else does, but because any effective organization on a riding level might only raise the risk that May would see her chances as being improved and select the riding as a result.

Which means that in leaving the door open for herself to pick from the Greens' strongest ridings, May figures to be substantially damaging the likelihood that the Greens will actually build up their strength in any of them. And while that trade-off might make sense for May's own purposes, it's hard to see how the Greens as a whole would stand to benefit from their leader undermining their ability to cultivate their best opportunities.