On base assumptions

I've been holding off on commenting on Harris/Decima's latest issue polling in hopes that they'll release what looks to be some important background data - particularly as to how (if at all) parties and leaders other than the Cons and Libs were included in the polling. But let's take a look at the significance of the numbers made public so far.

Based on the Cons' usual mantra of crime and taxes, it's not too surprising that they've managed to take a fairly significant lead compared to the Libs on those issues. What strikes me as most interesting, though, is a disturbingly strong comparative showing for the Cons on two other types of issues.

First, there are the issues where both the Cons and Libs have delivered relatively consistent competing narratives. Most striking among these is the economy, where the Cons are still somehow managing to defy reality to rate strongly even while simultaneously sinking the Canadian economy and sending the federal budget into the red. But it also seems significant that the Cons have managed to open up a lead on foreign affairs while burdened not only with a set of policy positions which still seems largely out of step with many Canadians, but also the Bernier scandal which directly tied the Cons government to well-known failures in the area.

As significant as those comparisons may be, however, the most telling one may come in health care, an issue which has been largely ignored by both parties. Considering that the Libs spent the better part of the '90s and early '00s winning federal elections based largely on the fear of a Reform or Alliance effort to gut Canada's health care system, the Cons would seem to have had an awful lot of ground to make up to get anywhere near parity on the issue.

Moreover, there's little indication to date that concerns about how the Cons would handle health care were unfounded. After all, the Harper government has shut down any efforts to enforce the Canada Health Act and taken the side of private health care delivery in both British Columbia and Quebec. And the one-time Con "priority" on health care soon turned into little but a giveaway which paid provinces for cherry-picking goals which they had already planned to meet anyway.

But despite their woeful track record, the Cons have somehow managed to take a small lead as being seen as more competent to handle health care. And I can only interpret as a signal that the Cons' stay in power has managed to fundamentally shift one of the foundational issues that was most discussed in the lead-up to the 2006 election.

Whether or not the perception has any basis in reality, it seems that the Cons have managed to get themselves on the right side of the apple cart principle compared to the Libs. At least among Harris-Decima's respondents, it seems that the Cons are assumed to be better equipped to deal with any given issue - unless it's one such as the environment or poverty which the Libs have pushed significantly more than the Cons.

Again, it's worth noting that the poll numbers listed in the article don't seem to include other federal parties. And the distribution of the relatively large numbers unaccounted for in the information released to date could make a world of difference.

If the 40% or so of respondents whose votes weren't mentioned on a particular issue primarily reflect voters who would prefer a different party than the Cons or Libs, then they may signal a significant drop in the Libs' status as a default option. If, on the other hand, the excluded respondents primarily reflect those who are undecided or don't yet have an opinion, then they may suggest that neither the Libs nor the Cons are currently all that well defined in the public's view - leaving the field wide open as a federal election approaches.

Of course, it should be noted that the Libs' consistent role in propping up Harper over the past year has likely done wonders to strengthen the Cons' position on questions such as these. But however public opinion ended up where it is now, any effort to topple the Cons needs to start with a clear message that any undue focus on not disturbing the apple cart now could have disastrous consequences down the road.