Unrealistic

The CP reports on yet another Con broken promise, as National Defence has been forced to admit that the Cons' new funding couldn't support their promised increase in the size of the Canadian military. But even the new set of reduced targets seems to be based largely on wishful thinking:

The Defence Department's latest performance report says the 2006 pledge to increase the number of regular reserve soldiers, sailors and aircrew has been revised because of costs and the high attrition rate of serving members...

The document also warns that if more members than expected choose to leave the military over the next five years, the situation will worsen. Recruiting would then have to be stepped up dramatically or some units may be under strength...

The military based its revised expansion figures on an average attrition rate of 6.1 per cent a year. But that figure represents all occupations, and in certain fields - such as combat arms - attrition is running between 12 and 13 per cent.

Leslie said attrition in the army is running at a (sic) average of eight per cent.

The report shows the Canadian Forces are exceeding recruitment targets but trained members are going out the door just as fast.

And the picture only figures to get worse over the next few years. From Auditor General Sheila Fraser's 2006 report:

National Defence data show that there is a large concentration of members in their later years of service who are approaching the time when they will be eligible for retirement. Approximately 50 percent of Regular Force personnel have 15 years of service or more; thus they are either already eligible to leave or will soon be. Because of the potential for a large number of military personnel to leave over the next five to ten years, National Defence is predicting that attrition will rise. As the exhibit shows, there are few members behind those leaving to fill in the gap.

National Defence data show that attrition rates are also higher than average in the early years when members are getting initial training and adjusting to military life. Currently, about 31 percent of Regular Force personnel have less than six years of service. Since so many members are in their early years, the average rate of attrition is expected to increase in coming years.

The combined factors of higher rates of attrition and larger numbers of people in the early and later periods of their service are expected to lead to a higher overall attrition in coming years. While attrition in the Regular Force has averaged six percent since 2000, National Defence expects an increase over the next 10 years.

Of course, the rise to 8% itself may make for some of that increase which Fraser identified as a likely result. But if military personnel are indeed more likely to depart early in their service, then the focus on an influx of new recruits should make for reason to expect even more attrition.

Instead, the Cons are choosing to assume an unrealistically low rate of attrition in order to try to preserve a target slightly closer to their even more implausible initial promise, rather than setting an achievable goal based on what's actually likely to happen. And the more the Cons choose to plan their policies around best-case scenarios rather than likely outcomes, the worse off Canada figures to be when reality intervenes.