Desperate measures

All too predictably, some of the Cons' usual media cheerleaders have gone out of their way to paint Deceivin's Stephen's throne speech ultimatum as having nothing but upside for the Cons (while parroting other Con spin along the way). But the reality is that Harper's move suggests some significant desperation on his part to try to press for an early election. And it's entirely possible that the Cons may wind up overplaying their hand significantly as a result.

After all, while the Cons may perceive the near future as their best opportunity to try to push for a majority, there's little indication that Canadian voters share any real desire to hand over absolute power to one party. And indeed Harper himself seemed to acknowledge that fact with his recent statements that a minority government is still the likely result of any election.

But Harper's attempt to raise the stakes appears to run directly contrary to that acknowledgement. And that could be seriously damaging to the Cons based on more than just Harper's own equivocation.

In effect, the Cons are demanding that the opposition acquiesce in their governing now as if they now had a majority. To a point, that may play well to Harper's effort to paint himself as a decisive leader. But it also figures to make Harper appear unreasonable and heavy-handed to swing voters who want to see either a counterweight to strict central rule, or some cooperation between parties.

Moreover, that impression will only be strengthened if, as seems likely, the Cons indeed load up their throne speech with poison pills to try to force the opposition to vote it down. The Cons could well succeed in precipitating an election, but only at the cost of having to defend those poison pills within the ensuing campaign. And if an election actually does turn largely on the question of whether the Cons' most extreme policy planks are in line with Canadian values, there's more chance than the Cons would want to admit that they'll end up bleeding away support during the campaign rather than pulling off their seeming plan to pull away in the polls.

Simply put, "my way or the highway" isn't a message that's likely to resonate much with Canadian voters - particularly when even Harper's confidants have to admit that Canada is not a Conservative country. And there's little reason to think that the Cons will improve their chances of a majority in a pending election by ignoring the current democratically-expressed wishes of Canadian voters in pretending they have one now.