On targets

In my absence, Uncorrected Proofs posted an interesting list of the NDP's likely target ridings in Quebec. While that post is worth a read, however, it's worth adding a few comments on the NDP's odds of success - as well as pointing out a few other types of ridings where the Dippers could mount a serious challenge.

While Uncorrected Proofs is pessimistic about the NDP's chances of pulling out another seat beyond Outremont, it's worth noting that two of the top targets in particular are looking more promising by the day.

As I've noted before, Hull-Aylmer is home to the Libs' Quebec lieutenant in Marcel Proulx. Not only will Proulx face a significant distraction from the Libs' other races within the province, but he also figures to be on the receiving end of some fallout from the Libs' internal turmoil. Which, combined with the NDP's already-solid results in the riding and the nomination of a high-profile candidate in Pierre Ducasse, makes this an extremely strong target.

Then there's Westmount-Ville-Marie - which just happens to be the site of one of the Libs' most significant internal fights as Marc Garneau seethes over Stephane Dion's refusal to name him as the party's candidate. It remains to be seen whether the Libs can attract anybody else with Garneau's profile (which was itself insufficient to win Garneau a seat when he ran in 2006), but if the NDP can put forward a high-profile candidate the riding should easily be up for grabs.

Those two are naturally the NDP's best targets based on the combination of a relatively high vote in the 2006 election and other favourable factors. But while Uncorrected Proofs seems to stick to ridings which were home to a fairly strong Dipper vote in 2006, those aren't the only ones which the NDP could realistically win. (Consider in comparison how far the Cons came to win ridings like Louis-Hebert or Jonquière—Alma in 2006.)

First, there's the possibility that Mulcair's history in Laval could help to bring the NDP into contention there. Mulcair consistently routed his opponents in Chomedey while running for provincial office, and indeed typically put up an extra 15-20 percentage points beyond his Lib predecessor and successor. And if Mulcair is able to persuade a substantial part of that base to put its effort behind the NDP, then it's entirely possible that the NDP could put together a winning effort in one or more Laval seats - particularly if the Libs and Bloc, who currently hold all the city's seats, continue their freefall.

Second, there are ridings which may be sufficiently disillusioned with Duceppe's support of the Cons to put their support behind the NDP as a better progressive alternative. In particular, I'd look for areas where the Cons weren't able to challenge the Bloc in 2006 (hinting at an aversion to Harper's brand of conservatism), including Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques, Trois-Rivières, Brossard—La Prairie, Chambly—Borduas, Longueuil—Pierre-Boucher Saint-Bruno—Saint-Hubert, Saint-Lambert and Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou in addition to Laurier-Sainte-Marie, Manicouagan and the bulk of Montreal. Not all of these may fit the profile (i.e. the Bloc's total may be based on separatism rather than any progressive bent), but these should offer at least a few more possible targets - particularly if the Bloc does continue to crumble.

Finally, there's the possibility of recruiting additional star candidates who will bring their own electoral machinery to the table. While Mulcair was able to win in new territory, Political Bytes noted that the Cons' by-election success seems to have been based entirely on recruiting candidates with municipal electoral experience and an existing base of operations to match. And with a number of Libs having apparently turned their support toward the Cons in 2006, there's no apparent reason why a disgruntled riding association or two couldn't decide to put its strength behind the NDP instead.

With the NDP's star obviously on the rise in Quebec, there's a far better chance of attracting star candidates and/or former supporters of other parties. And there are awfully few seats where the NDP (or indeed any other one of the four main parties) couldn't at least mount a challenge with a strong existing machine behind it.

Of course, the NDP can't take anything for granted in Quebec or elsewhere. It may well need a couple of the above factors working in its favour to win any of the ridings where its 2006 support was relatively limited - and maybe none of the possibilities will pan out. But at this point, there are far more than just a couple of Quebec seats where the NDP could realistically come away victorious in the next election cycle or two. And hopefully Mulcair and the party's Quebec team are well on their way to making more than a few come to fruition.

(Edit: fixed wording.)