Votes up for grabs

Over the last little while, there's been plenty of discussion about the possibility that the Rhinos (or neo-Rhinos, or Canadian Conservative-Rhino Alliance Party, or...) may rejoin Canada's political scene in the Outremont by-election. But there's been less attention paid to the fact that Outremont voters already had plenty of independents and small-party candidates to choose from in 2006. And in a race that figures to be extremely close, the votes which went to lesser-known candidates in 2006 may well be enough to swing the by-election result. So let's take a look at the parties aside from the main four which ran in the riding in 2006...and what their presence or absence figures to mean for the by-election.

I include the Greens in the "small parties" list based primarily on what seems to be a distinct lack of attention to the by-election through either their riding page or their calendar, which makes it appear likely that they'll get lost in the shuffle in a riding where the NDP, Libs, Bloc and Cons have all been off and running for some time. If the Green plan on putting as much emphasis on Outremont as they apparently did during the 2006 election, that could significantly reduce the pool of voters available to be won by the other parties.

Here are Outremont's 2006 results beyond the top four:
Votes - Party - Candidate
1957 - Green - Francois Pilon
101 - Independent - Eric "Roach" Denis
94 - Progressive Canadian - Philip Paynter
88 - Marxist-Leninist - Linda Sullivan
85 - Independent - Yan Lacombe
35 - Independent - Xavier Rochon
22 - Independent - Regent Millette

For those curious, the latter two vote totals were the lowest in Quebec in 2006. It appears that the high number of independent and small-party candidates resulted in extensive vote-splitting compared to other Quebec ridings...which may hint (not surprisingly) that most of the small-party votes will likely seek out another protest candidate rather than finding their way to the major contenders.

That said, a small percentage of the small-party votes could be enough to swing the by-election. Based on the above chart, 2382 Outremont votes went to parties or independents who haven't yet signalled their interest in the byelection. And there's plenty of room to speculate how those votes could shake out.

The Greens' 2006 candidate, Francois Pilon, was described as an independent businessman. On a fairly quick review, I haven't found much on his other background aside from some expected dedications to the Greens as a party (which has apparently continued into 2007 though some event organization), and his signing onto the Make Poverty History initiative at the time of the campaign.

Needless to say, the parties campaigning in the by-election have to be eager to win the support of Pilon's voters even if he himself is still solidly Green. And there's enough variety even from my limited view of Pilon's background to suggest that all of them may have some reason for optimism: while a focus on poverty and the environment would seem to fit the NDP best, the Bloc and Libs are presumably going after the same types of voters, and it's not out of the question that Pilon's business background could have helped him to win some votes which may otherwise have gone to the Cons.

Next up is filmmaker Eric Denis aka "Roach", who classifies himself as a "self-proclaimed Anarcho-punk". Naturally, that description doesn't lend itself to an affinity for any of the four main parties (especially with Myron Thompson retiring from politics). But a couple of the other individual descriptions among Denis' co-workers sound like relatively plausible target voters for the established parties.

Linda Sullivan and Yan Lacombe had both run previously in Outremont in 2004 (Lacombe for the Marijuana Party rather than as an Independent), and both actually backslid substantially in their vote totals between 2004 and 2006. It wouldn't be surprising for either of the parties involved to seek the media attention that would come with a by-election run. But Lacombe's voting bloc could be a particularly interesting one to watch, both because his 2004 vote total was a respectable 451, and because some of his past partymates have managed to find homes both in the NDP and among the Libs.

Xavier Rochon was a student at the University of Montreal. While I've heard of worse values systems than the one proposed on Rochon's site, there's little (aside from some mention of climate change) to suggest any great affinity for one party over another among Rochon or his voters.

Finally, Regent Millette had apparently run unsuccessfully in a number of previous elections after a career as a teacher. But given an apparently firm stand against parties in politics, one has to assume that none of the main contenders are expecting a boost (however slight) from his few supporters.

Again, it remains to be seen how many votes will shift from the smaller-party or independent candidates to the main contenders in the by-election. But the Outremont race figures to be one where no party can afford to leave any votes on the table - and when even the slightest added bit of organization could make all the difference, one or more of the riding's past candidates could put the eventual winner over the top.