The other battle

Most of the talk about Quebec' impending by-elections has focused on Outremont based on how competitive the riding looks to be. But with Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot also going to the polls, there's another opportunity for each party to try to show that it's improved its standing since the 2006 general election. So let's take a look at where the parties now stand, and what they may hope to accomplish.

In 2006, the Bloc's Yvan Loubier won the riding with 56.02% of the vote, with the Cons' Huguette Guilhaumon ranking second at 24.8%. Stephane Deschenes of the Libs came in third at 9.83% of the vote, followed by the NDP's Joelle Chevrier at 5.48% and the Greens' Jacques Tetrault at 3.87%.

The riding doesn't seem to have been a target of much investment from any of the parties: the Bloc spent roughly $41,000 defending it, and the only other expenditures reported so far were those of the Libs who spent less than $15,000.

From the above, it's easy to see why nobody seems to expect the riding to change hands. Not only did the Bloc win it handily last time with a candidate whose personal appeal wasn't enough to win him a provincial seat, but they also left plenty of room for added spending if they need to invest more to hold the seat. But that doesn't mean the other parties don't all have some potential to make a statement in either direction depending on the byelection results.

As focused as the Cons are on short-term political calculations, they surely have to have at least some interest in improving their long-term chances as well...which could be boosted immensely if they can get within striking distance of the Bloc in seats like this one.

In contrast, the Libs will surely be looking to reclaim their mantle as the main alternative to the Bloc. And since the Libs managed to double the Cons' vote total in 2004 (with the vote percentages roughly flipping in 2006), it's far from impossible that the Libs could push their way back into second place.

Yet they can hardly be sure of holding their ground either. The NDP in turn would surely see an opportunity to make up the few points now separating it from the Libs, and perhaps eat into the Bloc's left-wing support to position itself as a longer-term option in the riding.

And finally, the Greens could see a chance to capitalize on the attention paid to other ridings by seeing if a concerted push can get them past any of the other federalist parties.

What'll be most interesting to see is how the parties choose to allocate their resources - and whether it leads to unexpected results in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot. Might the Bloc pay so much attention to defending Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean as to put its lead in jeopardy, or at least let another party within striking distance? Will the Cons hold their vote, or the 2006 result this an example of some of the Libs' election machine having put its weight behind Harper solely out of spite against PMPM? And if the Libs and/or NDP put their focus almost entirely on Outremont, do the Greens have a realistic chance of passing one or the other in Quebec for the first time?

Based on the lack of attention paid to Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot so far, I don't expect these stories to be the subject of much media attention. But they may certainly lead to at least some party bragging rights. And even if none of the parties puts its full effort into Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot based on the outcome seeming to be preordained, that may in turn only make the riding a key barometer of the parties' baseline support in Quebec.