On starting points

The Pembina Institute has crunched the numbers underlying last week's news that Canada's greenhouse gas emissions were effectively stable from 2003 to 2005. And while the analysis suggests that emission increases aren't necessarily a thing of the past, it still seems that immediate reductions are well within reach:

Canada still hasn't turned the corner on cutting its greenhouse gas emissions -- even though recent figures suggest the country stabilized the pollution levels linked to global warming in recent years, according to an environmental think-tank's new analysis.

The latest numbers from Environment Canada revealed that overall greenhouse gas emissions remained at 747 megatonnes in 2004 and 2005, up from 745 megatonnes in 2003.

Matthew Bramley, director of climate change policy at the Pembina Institute, said a range of random factors temporarily put a stop to the rise in Canadian emissions from 2003 to 2005. But he expects a steady rise of about 12 megatonnes per year if there are no new federal policies to achieve the country's Kyoto target of lowering emissions to 563 megatonnes.

"It's important not to give the impression that the stabilization in emissions is anything more than a temporary blip, because the underlying trend is (a continued and rapid increase)," said Bramley in an interview. "We very much need to keep the emphasis on the need for much stronger greenhouse gas reduction policies from the federal government than we've seen to date, otherwise we're not going to stop that increase in emissions."

Bramley is right to point out the need for continued and stronger action. But the Pembina Institute's data only reinforces the fact that action toward short-term reductions shouldn't be particularly difficult given that the anticipated rise represents a mere 1.6% of current emissions. Indeed, the impending ban on incandescent lightbulbs alone figures to take care of half of that amount.

Of course, there's still a long way to go to work toward the larger emission cuts required under Kyoto. But Bramley's analysis confirms that there's no need to waste any time griping about "slowing down emissions growth" rather than working toward real reductions. And while the Libs bear full responsibility for letting emissions get to their current levels, the blame for any present and future emissions growth figures to lie with the Cons as long as they're the only party trying to mislead Canadians about where we stand now.