Ever more power

The Star reports that the Ontario Power Authority's controversial plan to pour $40 billion into new and refurbished nuclear reactors is effectively based on both a massive increase in small-appliance purchases, and an assumption that no government policy will operate to make those appliances (or any other energy consumer) more efficient:

A "load forecast" discussion paper released by the Ontario Power Authority estimates that minor appliances — everything from plasma screen TVs and DVD players to toaster ovens and iPod chargers — will be the single largest contributor to residential energy growth between now and 2025.

"Minor appliances include quite a few things," said Vipin Prasad, director of power system planning with the Ontario Power Authority. "In the old days, there was one TV (in a home); now there are at least two TVs. It's the same for computers, and that is all reflected here."...

As a load forecast, it takes into account voluntary conservation, changes in the economy that might reduce energy intensity of homes and businesses, and the replacement of old equipment with newer, more energy-efficient versions.

It excludes the impact of new laws, regulation and incentives designed to boost conservation and energy efficiency — for example, amendments to the provincial building code that go into effect next year...

"It's a fair chunk of consumption," said Mark Winfield, director of environmental governance at the Pembina Institute.

But Winfield disputes the assumptions being made about growth. He said the fact most minor consumer appliances and electronic devices have a short life cycle means they will likely be replaced with more energy-efficient versions every few years, unlike major appliances such as dishwashers.

"Essentially they assume there will be no improvements beyond the current commercially available technologies," Winfield said. "Given the current pace of technological development, this seems a very conservative assumption."...

José Etcheverry, a climate change analyst with the David Suzuki Foundation, said the power authority's projections ignore recent historical trends that suggest annual growth in electricity consumption is well below 1 per cent.

"They should be asking how to bring demand down to 0.5 per cent and not assuming that it will go up 1 per cent," he said. "Their estimates are high and represent a self-fulfilling prophecy approach."

Etcheverry's point nicely highlights the most important problem with the OPA's assumptions. If large amounts of money are put into creating enough generating capacity to allow for stagnant design standards (both in manufactured goods and in building construction), then the result will be a disincentive toward any increased efficiency.

It may be understandable that the OPA needs to keep in mind a potential worst-case scenario for increased power consumption. But surely that type of scenario would lead to exactly the kind of regulatory and legislative measures that the OPA has instead assumed away - that is, unless the province has already spent a bundle to enable and encourage the increased use.