On underestimation

The Star reports on two more studies on the melting of polar ice caps...and from the looks of things, even the most dire predictions from the past decade may understate the dangers of global warming:

This new research, based on a comprehensive look at global warming in the distant past, says melting the two icy domains could eventually raise sea level worldwide by as much as five metres, enough to flood low-lying regions like the Netherlands and most Pacific atolls, as well push half a billion people inland...

Marshall and the other researchers acknowledged they were taken by surprise by the breakneck escalation in the melting of glaciers and ice sheets in recent years. Since 1980 the portion of the Greenland ice cap experiencing annual melting has increased by 40 per cent.

"It's not a gradual change. It's like flipping a switch. Areas that haven't experienced melt in centuries suddenly do," said Marshall.

There's still plenty of time to make changes before the worst of the possibilities mentioned in the new study come to pass. But it'll take a lot more will from developed and developing states alike to recognize the dangers associated with a process which is already underway...and there isn't yet much reason to be optimistic that the greater dangers will give rise to greater actions.