Pragmatism and principle

The two subplots receiving the most attention in the Cons' cabinet announcement today are Harper's success in luring David Emerson across the floor, and the naming of Michael Fortier with the expectation that he'll then find his way to the House of Commons through a byelection. Both moves are significant tactical gambits to help Harper keep power for now. But while the Cons will gain somewhat in their immediate ability to govern, it's the NDP that should be the largest long-term beneficiary of the moves.

After all, the significance of the Emerson switch is to ensure that any Con deal with the NDP will be able to pass in the House so long Peter Milliken (as rumoured) continues as speaker. And assuming that Fortier waits and wins a seat now held by the Libs or Bloc (or alternatively if Andre Arthur jumps to the Cons), then the NDP will hold a true balance of power no matter who's in the Speaker's chair.

At the same time, though, anybody who genuinely opposed either the Stronach defection or the Senate appointment system has no reason to be anything but disillusioned with the Cons. And that could well represent enough votes to continue the Cons' drop in B.C. seats next time Canadians go to the polls...particularly since the NDP can point out its consistent stance against Emerson/Stronach-style party jumping.

So do the Libs gain anything on principle? Not for a second. After all, none of Harper's actions look any different from what the Libs have gone out of their way to deliver over the last decade-plus. And what's worse for the Libs, the jump by Emerson helps to show that even where a vote for the Libs doesn't deliver a three-way race to a Con in name, it can also result in the NDP losing out to somebody who's willing to jump to the Cons at the first whiff of added power. Meanwhile, the tactical implications are obviously a problem as well, since the Libs will no longer have any stronger voice in policy-making than the NDP.

In sum, Emerson's move is a disaster for the Libs on all counts, and at best a guarded win for the Cons given both the complete repudiation of the principles the party has claimed to speak for in the past, and the energy the party put into tearing him down through past campaigns. For the NDP, though, it means that Layton holds both the balance of power, and the ability to speak out as the only national leader whose party doesn't make a habit of offering inducements to other parties' members to jump ship. And it's tough to imagine a much better starting point for the Dippers going into the next Parliament.