On making progress

Based on Decima's latest polling numbers, the electorate may be less stable than one would assume from the consistency of past polling numbers, and the NDP is in a position to gain from that fluidity:

One in five respondents to Decima's online survey of more than 6,000 people had changed their opinion since the federal election campaign began three weeks ago.

Yet on a national level, overall public opinion has barely budged, suggests the poll provided exclusively to The Canadian Press.

This week, Decima found the Liberals led with 35 per cent of committed support, followed by the Conservatives at 25 per cent, the New Democrats at 21 and the BQ at 13...

Decima CEO Bruce Anderson says the national numbers obscure some interesting movement, including New Democrats drawing above their weight with undecided voters and soft NDP supporters as likely to switch to the Conservatives as the Liberals.

The polling of swing voters suggests that a good number of Canadians are managing to defy the media's coverage of the election: rather than buying into the Lib/Con dichotomy, it appears that substantial numbers of voters are looking primarily at a Lib/NDP or Con/NDP choice. And based on the NDP's better standing in soft support than in committed support, plenty of the voters looking at those choices have liked what they've seen from the NDP so far.

Not to say that the NDP isn't doing well with its base in the survey as well, as the Decima numbers for committed NDP voters are already higher than those in most other polls to date. But if Anderson's conclusions as to the current swing vote are anything close to accurate, then there's ample room for even more growth through the rest of the campaign.