The popular will

Once again, the Canadian public seems to be going in precisely the opposite direction from its political leader. While PMPM seems to be retreating on softwood lumber, 77% of the public backs retaliation through restricted oil and gas exports. But the issue is one of trade fairness rather than America-bashing:

Three of every four Canadians believe Canada should restrict oil and gas exports to the United States if the U.S. does not repay the $5-billion in softwood lumber tariffs that were ruled a violation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, a new poll suggests...

An overwhelming majority of the 1,001 adults surveyed -- 81% -- disagreed with a statement that the United States is Canada's best friend, a secure market for Canadian goods, and that Canada should let the United States keep the billions of dollars in softwood tariffs and move on to other issues...

Seventy-one per cent of respondents agreed with the statement: "I value and respect the United States and its citizens -- it's just that I disagree fundamentally with their government."

Martin's position, meanwhile, has been to essentially concede the U.S.' position that the next step is to negotiate a new agreement. And through the ever-popular "senior government source", it's also clear that Canada won't be demanding repayment of the withheld money before entering into talks.

The only demand from Martin's side has been "an indication that the United States understands the importance of fulfilling the terms of NAFTA", with absolutely no suggestion as to what that indication might be. Essentially, a mere change in Bush's public posture can be seen as enough of a "sign" to bring Canada to the table, where we'll once again face both a stacked deck and an opponent who'll walk away from the table if the results don't go his way.

Which means that while Martin may once again have won political points by seeming to stand up to the U.S.' bullying, it appears that he's also once again giving away precisely what he claims to be standing for. And that's a political point that should be held against him - particularly by those 77% of Canadians who simply want us to do the most we can under the rules.

Update: According to another poll, a plurality would rather see negotiation than either of two other options (retaliation or expanded exports). The difference seems to be based on the all-or-nothing nature of the latter poll: as phrased, it seems to imply that the U.S. would have no chance to repay the tariffs, while the earlier one is based on the premise of continued refusal to pay. Which seems to be the all-too-likely outcome.