Sunday, September 25, 2005

Getting out

Word comes out today that Britain may start withdrawing troops from Iraq next year:
British troops will start a major withdrawal from Iraq next May under detailed plans on military disengagement to be published next month, The Observer can reveal.

The document being drawn up by the British government and the US will be presented to the Iraqi parliament in October and will spark fresh controversy over how long British troops will stay in the country. Tony Blair hopes that, despite continuing and widespread violence in Iraq, the move will show that there is progress following the conflict of 2003.

Britain has already privately informed Japan - which also has troops in Iraq - of its plans to begin withdrawing from southern Iraq in May, a move that officials in Tokyo say would make it impossible for their own 550 soldiers to remain.

The article doesn't make clear whether U.S. troops will also be involved in the planned drawdown. And it appears that withdrawal will be based only on meeting targets negotiated between the U.S., U.K. and Iraqi governments, which could slow down the process in a couple of ways.

First, Bush hasn't shown any willingness to set anything resembling a timetable for withdrawal, so his administration will likely demand impossible standards. We may be able to tell just how much control Iraq is allowed to have over its own affairs based on how much credence if given to the pro-withdrawal view within Iraq; unfortunately, it's tough to be optimistic at this point.

Second, as I've pointed out before, any withdrawal predicated on conditions within Iraq gives the insurgency the choice whether or not to allow any withdrawal...which may mean either delays, or less stability once the withdrawal happens.

Those problems aside, it's clear at least that the momentum has shifted: even the strongest non-U.S. supporter of the invasion is publicly acknowledging that it's time to get out. We'll see how long it takes the U.S. to reach the same conclusion.

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