Wednesday Afternoon Links

Miscellaneous material for your mid-week reading.

- Libby Davies weighs in on what comes next for the NDP:

(Jack Layton) had a vision for Canada that was about inclusivity and fairness, and he was willing to work with others to make this happen.

However, talking mergers (as they do in the corporate world) is not a way to realize this vision -- and is not something I'm in favour of. What I believe can bring this vision to fruition is doing the hard work of reaching out and engaging Canadians in a more participatory democratic political process. Let's stand down the elites and move up the grassroots. Let's acknowledge that we do live in a classed, racialized, and gendered society, and that our political work should open up and embrace bold change that transforms power towards a society that is more equalized, sharing, and compassionate.

This means understanding the structural changes that are required -- such as electoral reform and fairer taxation. It also means emboldening our principles and actions: to defend public services, to stand for a principled position against war and oppression, and uphold basic human dignity and social and environmental justice. It means realizing that those at the top don't have a monopoly on deciding what needs to be done. Let's look to real life experience, the energy of youth, and the collective wisdom manifested in strong local communities, where many amazing changes are taking place that must be supported and sustained.

- The first rule of reporting on Stephen Harper is that you do not report on Stephen Harper.

- Your entirely credible Saskatchewan Party government at work trying to explain its efforts to deny the vote to First Nations citizens:

Justice Minister Don Morgan said the government had not adopted the attestation of residence for First Nations because there had been situations in the recent federal election where a band officer or chief had issued forms for all First Nation members en masse without knowing whether the individuals actually lived on the reserve.

Diane Benson, a spokesperson for Elections Canada, said Friday the organization had found no problems with attestation of residence in the spring election nor were any complaints raised about its use as an identification.

- And finally, Don Gunderson nicely pegs the Sask Party's excuse for economic management:

A "fair share" for our resources is the highest price the market will bear, in the same way that a "fair share" for a person's home is the highest price they can sell it for. It's based on the principle that the people of the province own the resources, not the developers or the government. It's based on a cost/benefit analysis using market realities, not ideology or political self-interest.

What evidence is there that we are receiving a fair share? Lots of investment? That's like a shyster realtor putting your $500,000 house up for sale for $100,000 and then bragging "what a good realtor I am. Look at all the buyer interest I generated."

Deep thought

I know I appreciate when partisan hacks who declared the NDP could never become the Official Opposition then fought to keep it from happening offer their entirely sincere instructions as to how to how to build from here.

Beyond our wildest fears

I've frequently pointed out that a couple of the Cons' tax credit programs (implemented while they feigned interest in addressing climate change) made for the least efficient environmental programs on the face of the planet. But did anybody expect that evaluation could have been based on a highly optimistic estimate as to what Canadians actually paid for tiny environmental effects?

(T)he numbers in the report — Complete Analysis of Notable Climate Change Incentives in Canada, dated March 2 — estimates that several programs are costing hundreds of dollars for each tonne of pollution reduced. Two programs designed to encourage consumers to scrap old vehicles or buy fuel efficient cars are particularly costly, with cost estimates of about $92,000 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions reduced from the scrap program, and $18,990 per tonne for the ecoAUTO rebate — an incentive program that was subsequently cancelled.

Again, those prices are compared to reasonable market values in the range of $15-50 per tonne of emissions reduced. Which raises the question of how the Cons' willingness to pay thousands of times what emissions are normally supposed to be worth could possibly be seen as anything but evidence of gross incompetence and/or bad faith in government.

On deep impacts

The news that Larissa Shasko has stepped down as leader of Saskatchewan's Greens to work on Yens Pedersen's campaign has already received plenty of attention. But it's worth noting that based on the ridings involved, Shasko's move may have more impact than would appear to be the case at first glance - having the potential to tilt two swing ridings toward the NDP if the provincial race turns out to be similar to the one we saw in 2007.

Most obviously, Regina South was a close swing seat in 2007, and one which figured to be a top NDP target even if overall public support had shifted somewhat toward the Sask Party. This time out, Yens Pedersen has had well over a year to campaign as a high-profile candidate (after winning the 2007 nomination only at the start of that year's campaign), and his run for the NDP's leadership gives him a much stronger profile both inside and outside the NDP.

From that starting point, Shasko's support will offer Pedersen an experienced organizer on campus, and send the message that young and environmentally-conscious voters can be entirely comfortable with Pedersen. And in a riding where even a shift of a few dozen voters could make all the difference, that looks to be a huge bonus for Pedersen.

Meanwhile, Shasko's move may also have repercussions in Moose Jaw. Having previously run in three federal campaigns, two provincial ones and the most recent City Council race, Shasko was sure to be far more familiar to voters than any possible replacement.

Which isn't to say that her departure figures to have too much direct impact in Shasko's riding of Moose Jaw Wakamow, where the NDP's Deb Higgins looks to be in the driver's seat once again. But Moose Jaw North was the closest riding in the province in 2007, with the Saskatchewan Party's Warren Michelson winning by a mere 33 votes. And while the NDP faces a somewhat tougher race without Glenn Hagel carrying its banner, it's still well within the realm of possibility that a few dozen spillover votes based on Shasko's profile in the city could be crucial.

Of course, the more important aftershock of Shasko's decision would come if she sets a precedent for Green supporters to work with Pedersen and other NDP candidates. But even if nobody else follows suit, Shasko may wind up having a profound impact on November's election.

Tuesday Night Cat Blogging

Feline face-offs.

Conservative democracy at work

Shorter Gerry Ritz:

The only fair vote is one where I get to revise the results after the fact to reflect my preferred outcome.

Mostly competent government

Since the examples are piling up and pogge is nowhere to be found, let's quickly list off the latest examples of the kind of management Canada's corporate press so strongly endorsed.

Promises made with no funding or follow-through solely for the purpose of eliminating consumer rights as an election issue? Check.

And needless and wasteful duplication of polling which either reflects a complete lack of coordination between departments, or a deliberate attempt to split up the costs? Check.

But in fairness, let's note that the Cons have shown at least some capacity for learning: for example, taking from the Brian Mulroney experience that...they should listen less to the public. Which surely figures to end well.

Tuesday Morning Links

This and that for your Tuesday reading.

- Chantal Hebert highlights how the Harper Cons are making a show of ignoring the needs of Quebec - and indeed making matters worse by the day:

Persichilli’s recruitment also compounds what amounts to the party’s greatest election failure in the shape of its abysmal absence in Quebec.

At a time when the province is opening up to the federalist parties for the first time in decades, the first post-election addition to the senior ranks of the PMO cannot speak French and has a track record of lamenting Quebec’s influence on national affairs.

Harper is hardly the first prime minister to ask a non-French speaker to oversee his political communications. In his day, Paul Martin relied on an English-only communications director. But Harper is the first to deal with a Quebec vacuum within his government by making it worse.
...
Queried by The Globe and Mail about this and other unflattering Quebec-related comments, Persichilli responded that in his new role he planned to treat Quebecers with the “utmost respect.”

But he is already off to a double standard for when Montreal’s La Presse came calling with the same questions, he declined to answer them.

- Edward Greenspan and Anthony Doob point out that the conditional sentences being eliminated by the Harper Cons make for both a less expensive and more effective means of dealing with offenders:

The government has promised to further restrict the use of conditional sentences, claiming that its goal is to “protect the safety and security of our communities.” Yet it ignores substantial evidence demonstrating the opposite. The government indicated it would eliminate the use of the sanction for “serious and violent offenders,” but its bill also would have eliminated it for an offender whose offence involved breaking into a shed and stealing a bicycle.

Further restrictions will mean that offenders who otherwise would have received house arrest will go to a provincial, not federal, prison, thus ensuring that provincial/territorial costs will increase. Rather than benefiting the larger community through the use of punitive but simultaneously rehabilitative conditional sentences, the bill guarantees an increase in costs to the community. The government’s view that imprisonment pays for itself in crime reduction is a big lie.
...
It’s ironic that, while the Harper government wants to seriously increase the use of imprisonment on the false justification that it’s the most effective way to increase public safety, other countries are trying to seriously decrease its use. The United States, for instance, is considering moves toward sanctions such as house arrest. Canada and the U.S. are like ships passing in the night, but Canadians are the unfortunate passengers on the ship of fools.

- Hassan Arif argues against an NDP/Lib merger:

(A) merger would reduce our political choices, taking Canada from a multi-party system to a U.S.-style system of two monolithic parties - something even more limiting in the Canadian context, given the tradition of tight party discipline.

The benefits of a multi-party system can be seen, for example, in Ontario. In that province, while the Liberal government has provided progressive policies in areas such as environmental conservation, many northern Ontarians have felt neglected by the McGuinty government and by previous Tory governments. The NDP has been able to step into this void and provide a strong voice for northern Ontario, a particular legacy of Howard Hampton's tenure as Ontario NDP leader.

Coalition and cooperation (including, if acceptable to party members, non-compete agreements like the one Stéphane Dion's Liberals had with Elizabeth May in 2008) are desirable options in dealing with a united right. Merger, though, is far more drastic. It would reduce our political choices and may not be beneficial to either party. It should be approached with a large degree of scepticism.

- But as Ed Broadbent notes, there's no reason why anybody looking for the strongest possible progressive voice should see any problem with the existing party options:

Mr. Broadbent said that after the NDP breakthrough in Quebec on May 2, which propelled the party into Official Opposition for the first time in its 50-year history, the NDP now occupies the driver's seat at the federal level.

"The Liberals are in historic decline, election after election. People forget often, because of our wonderful breakthrough in Quebec, that we now have more seats in Toronto than the Liberals have," he said.

"Now is the time for progressive Liberals, as indeed progressive people from other parties, to come and join the NDP, and they don't have to agree with everything, just as all New Democrats don't agree with everything in the party, right? They could get in and help shape what the party becomes."

- Finally, Anne Kingston writes about the political coupling of Jack Layton and Olivia Chow:

It is a uniquely Canadian, multicultural, inclusive love story. Layton and Chow weren’t the first married couple to sit in the House of Commons (that was Nina and Gurmant Grewal), but they blazed a unique trail exemplifying social equality, says Segato, who still sometimes slips into the present tense when she’s referring to them: “What you see is a couple engaged in each other’s best good. The level of respect is so profound. They didn’t agree on every issue, but they had the discussion. They were the embodiment of the equal, feminist relationship. It’s not some political ideal. They’re living it.”
...
They did check in with one another by phone multiple times a day, a pattern that continued in Ottawa, “much to my annoyance,” Gallagher jokes, because it slowed down the schedule: “Working with Olivia, any number of times we’d be interrupted by Jack calling. Then when I moved to Ottawa I can’t tell you how many times Olivia would be brought in on speakerphone to be part of the decision. And it wasn’t just rubber-stamping, it was truly input.”

Another insider notes Chow’s patience rubbed off on Layton politically. “Olivia would say, ‘That’s a good idea but it’s not the right time,’ which isn’t a common discipline in political life. By the time Layton was federal leader [in 2003], he was a transformed political figure who thought strategically.”
...
Chow rejected the traditional ceremonial “wife” role, says Gallagher: “Olivia wanted no part of that; but both were there for the other publicly when required.” In public, they expressed unabashed affection, reflected in Layton’s 2005 proclamation: “Olivia is fundamental to my life. She is woven into every minute, every second, of my existence.”

On arbitrary standards

I'm sure we can look forward to Mitch Wexler's numbers on the total count of left-wing versus right-wing elected representatives in Canada being trotted out plenty during the course of this fall's provincial elections - especially if it helps to sell the Cons' narrative about Canada shifting to the right.

But if right-wingers plan to pretend that the number has any real significance, shouldn't they face plenty of tough questions as to why they've ignored the will of what by their own standards has been a left-wing majority up to this point?

Monday Morning 'Rider Blogging

Needless to say, yesterday's result was a much-needed change from what the Saskatchewan Roughriders have produced through most of the 2011 season. But it's worth noting that the differences between the 'Riders' Labour Day Classic win over Winnipeg and its last few losses came down to a couple of fairly subtle points which combined to tip the balance in Saskatchewan's favour.

First, there's the addition of one more effective receiver, with Dallas Baker thoroughly impressing in his first game as a 'Rider. Thanks to the combination of Baker's addition, Efrem Hill's emergence and Chris Getzlaf's better play, the 'Riders now have enough effective pass-catchers to ensure that Darian Durant can keep defences on their heels throughout any given game - rather than forcing the ball to Weston Dressler or hoping for the best from somebody more prone to drops. And the potential additions of Andy Fantuz and Cary Koch to the unit could well turn the 'Riders into one of the more dangerous teams in the CFL going into the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, the other key change was the 'Riders' rare success in gaining the upper hand early. The previous several games, Saskatchewan had staked opponents to large leads, then played fairly well in the second half to leave a modicum of hope until the last couple of minutes of each game. But the 'Riders have spent most of the season playing from behind - forcing its offence to press for points while ensuring that opponents could play conservatively.

Yesterday, that dynamic was turned around. And indeed, the 'Riders won the turnover battle because of their success on the scoreboard rather than the other way around: having taken a lead despite a couple of costly giveaways, Saskatchewan was then able to rack up two turnovers on downs and a late interception.

Aside from those factors, the 'Riders' success yesterday was mostly a combination of incremental improvement and good timing. All three units have had their moments in recent weeks, but the defence and return teams in particular went from effective to dominant against Winnipeg. And the few mistakes the 'Riders did make (most notably the two first-half turnovers) didn't lead to much damage on the scoreboard.

Of course, there's some danger in reading too much into one game in either direction. And indeed, I'll stick to the argument that the most important development for the 'Riders in September will be less what happens on the field than what the team can do to bring in the best of the crop of NFL cuts.

But the 'Riders nonetheless deserve credit for their first truly strong win of the 2011 season. And whether the change is more the result of Ken Miller's return as coach, upgrades in player talent or simply more breaks going the 'Riders' way, there's far more reason for hope for the rest of this season than 'Rider fans could enjoy this time yesterday.

On domino effects

Olivia Chow's announcement that she doesn't intend to run for the NDP's leadership looks to bring the race into much sharper focus.

With Chow deciding not to run, there's a wide open space for a candidate from the greater Toronto area. And while Peggy Nash looks like the most obvious prospect, there are all kinds of possibilities awaiting from inside and outside the NDP's current caucus - including some going beyond my current candidate lists if Nash too takes a pass.

Or alternatively, a gap in Toronto-area candidates would allow a contender from elsewhere a better chance to serve as the voice of urban voters - which might offer a particularly important opening for a candidate like Megan Leslie to expand beyond her current geographic base.

Finally, Chow was also the prospective candidate with the most obvious chance to both harness and influence Jack Layton's legacy in the course of the leadership race. And her choice to stay out of the fray means that a number of different candidates will instead have better chances to highlight different parts of Layton's leadership within their own campaign - while ensuring that Layton's personal reputation won't get tied as tightly to what happens in the leadership race and beyond.

On ancient history

Remember back when the Harper Cons were able to run roughshod over a weak official opposition party which couldn't muster any allies to fight back against the Cons' smears?

Just wondering - because thankfully, that sad era is over.

Leadership 2012 Reference Page

A one-stop source for general links on the 2012 NDP leadership campaign, to be updated as the race progresses. Please feel free to add additional suggestions in comments.

General Information
NDP Constitution (PDF)
Leadership Regulations (PDF)
NDP Leadership 2012 - Events
Pundits' Guide
Rabble
Wikipedia
CBC Candidate Profiles

Candidate Information

Candidate	Website	Profile	Policy	Ranking
Niki Ashton	NikiAshton.ca	Niki Ashton Profile	To come	5
Nathan Cullen	NathanCullen.ca	Nathan Cullen Profile	To come	7
Paul Dewar	PaulDewar.ca	Paul Dewar Profile	To come	3
Thomas Mulcair	ThomasMulcair.ca	Thomas Mulcair Profile	To come	1
Peggy Nash	PeggyNash.ca	Peggy Nash Profile	To come	2
Romeo Saganash	Saganash.ca	Romeo Saganash Profile	To come	6
Martin Singh	MartinSingh.ca	Martin Singh Profile	To come	8
Brian Topp	BrianTopp.ca	Brian Topp Profile	To come	4

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Candidate Rankings: December 26, 2011 - December 18, 2011 - December 10, 2011 - December 4, 2011 - November 26, 2011
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Leadership 2012: Notable By Omission

After two posts outlining possible candidates for the NDP's impending leadership race, I've thus far avoided mentioning the prospective candidate who's been on the receiving end of both media adulation and a blogger's plea to stay far, far away. So I'll take a moment to explain why Gary Doer doesn't currently rank among my possible contenders for the position.

While I don't entirely agree with Matt's take on Doer, I would see the concerns mentioned in his post resonating a fair bit among much of the party's progressive base - while Doer's apparently minimal French skills would leave him little prospect of winning much support in the province which offers the NDP's most obvious source of potential new members. And that combination excludes an awful lot of potential leadership voters from his list of possible targets.

Meanwhile, I don't see a lot of plausible areas of strength for Doer in the context of either the NDP's current membership, or the reasonable prospects for growth by next year. Yes, he has some union connections and could serve as a labour candidate, but he doesn't have much of an advantage on that front over plenty of other contenders. And while a Manitoba support base isn't a bad place to start in building a national coalition, I have serious doubts that Doer's name carries quite the same recognition and reputation that media insiders may think.

Granted, it is worth mentioning the "stalking horse" theory as the one possibility which might vault Doer to the leadership. If the talk of Brian Topp, Anne McGrath, Karl Belanger and others in Jack Layton's inner circle is indeed a cover for somebody who doesn't want to declare any intentions just yet but wants to keep some space open to declare a run later, then Doer is as plausible a beneficiary of that treatment as anybody. And the combination of Layton's machine with Doer's other sources of support might be enough to put the leadership within reach.

But even that scenario seems to me to fall far short of assuring Doer that he'd be more than one of several contenders for the title of NDP leader. Which means that he doesn't seem to have much reason to walk away from his current position - and that anybody looking for an outside knight in shining armor is probably best served looking elsewhere.

Sunday Morning Links

This and that for your Sunday reading.

- The Cons are once again getting noticed in the world - this time thanks to Serge Schemann pointing out their callous treatment of asbestos widow Michaela Keyserlingk in the New York Times:

This summer, to Mrs. Keyserlingk’s surprise and in a rather peculiar way, her continuing campaign was thrust into the limelight. The Conservative Party, which is currently governing Canada and has steadfastly supported asbestos mining, sent her a sharp notice demanding that she cease using the party’s logo on the modest Web site for her campaign. It threatened “further action” if she did not comply.

Mrs. Keyserlingk had put the Conservative logo on her site and on ads for it, with a red “Danger” sign and the legend, “Canada is the only Western country that exports deadly asbestos!”

The Conservative salvo at a 72-year-old widow of a man she called a “true-blue” Conservative quickly spread through blogs, newspapers and television. People from across Canada, including physicians and politicians, began sending letters of support — and checks, all of which she returned.

“They couldn’t have done anything better,” Mrs. Keyserlingk said of the Tories. To the party, her reply was: “I am delighted that someone in the Conservative Party of Canada is finally reacting after years of work by chrysotile asbestos victims.”

The logo remains. Conservative officials have ceased replying to queries about asbestos.

All of which made me wonder when, exactly, the Conservatives are going to get the message.

- Trish Hennessy's latest Index documents how recent Canadian economic trends are demanding far more of workers while offering less security:

2.3
Percentage increase in part-time jobs from 2008 to 2009, countering the 2.5 per cent loss in full-time jobs.

37.1
Percentage of Canadians aged 25-44 who said working part-time in 2009 wasn’t their choice – there was no full-time work available. Compared to 27.7 per cent of workers over 45.

2.7 million
Number of self-employed workers in Canada in 2009, up dramatically from 1.3 million in 1979

2.3 million
Number of full-time workers in Canada who had rotating shifts or irregular schedules in 2005.

29
Percentage of shift workers who expressed somewhat more dissatisfaction with their work-life balance in 2005.

- Dennis Gruending offers his take on Jack Layton's legacy.

- Michel takes on the media's recent efforts to pile onto Thomas Mulcair.

- And finally, Rabble's efforts to place Karl Nerenberg as a progressive voice in the Parliamentary Press Gallery are well worth some support.

Burning question

Sure, it's been fairly obvious that the Harper Cons have spent their time in office asking the world to think less of Canada. But did anybody suspect them to have done so quite this literally?

On inexplicable delays

Yes, the positive media response signals how important the impending debate over the NDP's Bright Futures Fund proposal figures to be in the lead-up to Saskatchewan's November election. But the even more significant bit of fallout looks to be part of Bill Boyd's panicked response which has less to do with the fund than its source of revenue:

A review of resource revenues would “make some sense” after the incentives in place to grow the mining industry wind down in 2014 or 2015, Boyd said.

Keep in mind that to date, the Sask Party's usual position has been that any review of resource royalties to make sure Saskatchewan's citizens receive a fair price for their shared resources would be absolutely intolerable at any time and under any circumstances. Which is at least a logically coherent position, if not likely to be a popular one.

But in his response to the NDP's proposal for a resource revenue fund, Boyd has effectively given the game away on royalty rates as well.

After all, it surely can't escape notice that the royalty rates applied over the next few years - before any new development is actually finished - have nothing at all to do with incentives to promote that development. In fact, any argument actually based on certainty for new investments would work in the opposite direction: better to review royalties now and set up a structure that will last in the longer term, rather than opening up a window for some future review which would affect new projects just as they begin production.

Meanwhile, the obvious beneficiaries in the absence of a royalty review are...resource extractors who have existing operations that don't require further investment. After all, they can take advantage of what are generally acknowledged to be unduly low rates by seeking to extract as much as possible over the next few years and skim off the profits - without any reason to think that the temporary windfall will result in any additional development whatsoever.

So the difference between the NDP and the Sask Party on a royalty review is now merely whether one should be carried out 8 years after the previous one or 11 years afterward - when there's nothing even faintly approaching a reasonable economic argument for the latter.

In effect, Boyd is declaring on behalf of the Wall government that the province needs to put up with three or four more years of handing hundreds of millions of dollars in undeserved free money to his party's corporate benefactors - while simultaneously arguing that the prospect of a review when the Saskatchewan Party deigns to get around to it won't affect investment which will be subject entirely to the new rates. And the combination of abandonment of principle and glaringly flawed logic in the Sask Party's new position should do nothing but help the NDP make the case for an immediate royalty rate review as a matter of fairness to Saskatchewan's residents.

[Edit: fixed wording.]

Saturday Morning Links

Assorted content for your weekend reading.

- Canada's Prime Minister is openly advocating for the use of soldiers over mere books or arguments as a means of persuasion. Which of course means it's time to start making jokes about Thomas Mulcair.

- Speaking of whom, Mulcair's much-discussed comments also include one point which should speak nicely to the NDP's goal of continuing to build across Canada rather than looking for shortcuts:

Mulcair says he appreciates what Martin is saying, but he won't support a merger.

"He's doing a great job of putting an important idea out there, but I'm categorical," he said. "The reason we did so well in Quebec in particular, is the fact that we aren't the Liberals."

- Deep Climate posts a superb expose of the Ethical Oil Institute. [Update: And see also James Laxer on the myth that it's possible to build a sustainable economy primarily on volatile resource industries.]

- Finally, remember back when any comparisons between Jack Layton and Barack Obama were met with haughty dismissals to the effect that Layton could never match Obama's appeal? Just wondering.

Musical interlude

Haley v. Deadmau5 - Falling In Love With Brazil (Kaskade Mashup)

On common strategies

Paul Krugman calls out the U.S.' Republican Party for holding the country hostage until its demands are met. Lucky our own right-wingers are so much more reasonable.

On advance reservations

Romeo Saganash's expression of interest in the NDP's leadership figures to give him some extra time and attention in the leadership race to make up for his late arrival within the party (which again strikes me as his biggest obstacle). But let's note as well that while a few other MPs have expressed some interest in seeking the leadership, Saganash's is the first announcement that figures to have substantial repercussions for other possible contestants.

For one, it's hard to see how the race would have room for two candidates with largely northern rural bases. So if Saganash follows through, that would limit the prospects for Niki Ashton in particular - and to some extent the NDP's northern Ontario MPs as well.

Meanwhile, one of the possibilities for a big name from outside the NDP's current caucus has focused on aboriginal leaders such as Lewis Cardinal. But there too, Saganash's entry figures to limit the amount of support up for grabs.

Of course, Saganash's interest is explicitly subject to the rules developed by the party over the next week. But his may be the first candidacy to start significantly closing off the possibilities - and I'll be curious to see how many more contestants decide to follow suit among other target groups.

Friday Morning Links

Assorted content to end your week.

- Carol Goar asks whether the Harper Cons learned anything whatsoever from a recession which they first deemed impossible, then minimized before acting only under political duress:

We have less manoeuvring room today than we did three years ago. Our budget is $30 billion in deficit, our employment insurance account has a $10.4 billion shortfall and we have the highest level of household debt in our history.

If Canada falls back into a recession — or if we’re already in one that hasn’t shown up in the statistics — millions of families will have no cushion.

It didn’t have to be this way. Our government had the time, had the money (it poured $39.9 billion into economic stimulus) and had the incentive to tackle these problems. Yet it brushed off calls from business, labour, the opposition parties and the unemployed to fix Canada’s broken economic stabilizers.

But sadly, the answer was already an emphatic "no" - and the EI system is only one of the many ways in which the Cons seem more interested in shredding safety nets than strengthening them.

- Andrew Coyne nicely sums up Jack Layton's last election campaign:

Much of the preposterousness of politics stems from the participants’ lunatic enlargement of the stakes, the “this is war” mentality with which they justify to themselves each appalling act. How childish these games must seem, when you are fighting for your life.

In (Layton's) last campaign, it all seemed to merge: the message of concern for the less fortunate, his personal bravery in the face of his own misfortune, the courtly, happy-warrior tone—in some ways a traditional protest campaign, but without a hint of anger. The whole was combined in the image of that cane: symbol of frailty, brandished in cheerful defiance.

Well, is that so unusual? All over this country there are thousands of people confronting cancer in their own lives, with no less courage or dignity. Layton was an admirable but not extraordinary man in life: is his death any more extraordinary? Only in this respect: that he was required to act it out on the public stage. We watched, like the ancients, and learned what it is to be a man.

- And John Geddes writes about the real Jack:

If he was a born politician, Layton didn’t rely solely on instinct. He prepared. It was Ignatieff who risked many unscripted outings during the last election—and failed miserably. Layton, like Harper, stuck mostly to reading speeches from a teleprompter at well-orchestrated rallies. His signature moments were not improvised. “Bon Jack” didn’t just happen to be in a Montreal sports bar, raising a beer mug to the cameras, for the first game of the Canadiens’ Stanley Cup playoff run—a turning point in the NDP’s Quebec campaign. “Every trick in the book about getting media,” former deputy leader of the Ontario NDP Marilyn Churley once said, “I learned from Jack Layton.”

Layton’s canny, self-conscious side must be reconciled now with the frequently expressed public sentiment that he was the rare, genuine article. The two perspectives aren’t really contradictory. Layton had been smiling and campaigning for one cause or another since boyhood. That was him. He didn’t have to reinvent himself for politics. In that respect, even when he was reading a stump speech for the 20th time, or hitting his marks for a staged photo-op, Canadians were seeing the real man.

- Finally, Frances Woolley considers the difficulties facing economists who start considering actual human behaviour as reason to challenge the assumption of perfectly rational and informed decision-making that underpins standard economic theory.

Friday Morning 'Rider Blogging

There hasn't been much news out of the 'Riders' camp this week. But let's note one point where there's little reason for optimism out of the team's coaching change.

While Greg Marshall's firing seems to have been based more on poor results than any obvious problem in the process leading to the Saskatchewan Roughriders' record, there was one move which smacked of desperation in Marshall's final game. The 'Riders' defence has generally been effective except for its weakness in forcing turnovers - meaning that the team should have every reason to want to emphasize the ball-hawking skills of its interceptions leader and reigning nominee for Outstanding Defensive Player.

But for some obscure reason, Marshall's last game saw James Patrick moved to a linebacker position where he has to spend more time covering receivers one-on-one and tackling running backs, while rookie Craig Butler (known more for hitting than picking off passes) took his place at the position on the field that allows for the most roaming in coverage. And no, the move can't be explained as an import ratio maneuver - since an arrangement swapping the two positions would result in the same ratio while better emphasizing the skills of both players.

Unfortunately, judging from the fact that the 'Riders apparently plan on keeping that arrangement up under Ken Miller, it looks like Marshall may not have been the one to make the call after all. And the 'Riders' tough road to the playoffs only looks to be all the more difficult if they keep minimizing the talents of their key skill players.

On bright futures

In this morning's column, I pointed out how the Wall government's focus on short-term electioneering and rule-tweaking betrays its insecurity over November's election. And the Sask Party will have all the more reason for concern in the wake of the NDP's official Bright Futures Fund announcement.

Not that it's much surprise that the NDP would announce an idea that's been in the works since its policy convention. But the more voters think and talk about the choice between gratuitously shovelling the province's resources into the hands of foreign investors and saving a fair share for Saskatchewan's long-term well-being, the tougher the Saskatchewan Party's road figures to be.

Leadership 2012: The Playing Field

With the NDP set to discuss the rules for its upcoming leadership campaign, let's take a quick look at a few of the basic issues involved, along with the answers which I'd think would best serve the goal of developing into a sustainable progressive governing party.

Timing

At the moment, there seems to be plenty of work being done to divine the intentions in Jack Layton's final public letter suggesting a similar time frame to that used the 2003 race. But I'd think the most important proposal is the one being mooted by Raoul Gebert.

Simply put, the race should be set up to provide as much time as possible for membership sales - both to permit candidates based in growth regions for the party plenty of time to bring in new members, and to ensure as much public attention for the race as possible before the cutoff date. And as long as the race allows for that, it shouldn't make too much difference whether a convention is held in late January (based on the 2003 date) or in the spring (based on the length of the 2003 campaign).

Funding

With stories circulating about how several of the Libs' 2006 leadership contenders still have plenty of leadership campaign debt left to repay, the NDP will want to make sure not to saddle itself with the same type of long-term trouble. But fortunately, there would seem to be a couple of relatively simple ways to avoid the problem.

For one, the entry fee should be set at a level which will ensure a manageable number of candidates. Which isn't to say that I'd back Ian Capstick's "extraordinarily high" proposal (though it's not clear whether the proposed million dollars refers to the entry fee or overall fund-raising), but at the very least a candidate should be able to raise a six-figure entry fee as the minimum standard to enter the race.

Once a candidate meets that standard, though, the ground rules should serve to encourage volunteer organization and innovative recruitment methods, rather than allowing fund-raising alone to play an unduly large part in limiting the range of choices. So my inclination would be to see spending limited to something close to the half-million dollar limit applied in 2003. In addition to levelling the playing field, that would have the side benefit of limiting the amount of debt the candidates accumulate, allowing the party to focus on its own fund-raising in the years to come rather than having to funnel donations toward a past leadership race.

Voting

There's been plenty of talk of set-asides - either for affiliated groups as in 2003, or for Quebec MPs or members based on their new strength within the party. But as far as I'm concerned, one of the very purposes of the leadership race is to build a base for future growth by determining which groups have the strongest interest in the NDP's future (as measured by their ability to sign up members).

So my initial inclination would be toward a pure OMOV system with no set-asides. And as long as the candidates are onside with the timelines and rules for membership sales, there shouldn't be any excuses for any group which sees itself as lacking representation at the convention.

[Edit: fixed wording.]

New column day

Here, on how the Saskatchewan Party's actions speak far louder than the pundits' words as to whether or not there's a real chance for change in the November election.

For further reading:
- James Wood has nicely covered the Sask Party's anti-whistleblower legislation and its attack on First Nations voters.
- Murray Mandryk noted the political games involved in the Sask Party's North Battleford hospital announcement - particularly to the real funding and non-election timing of the NDP's previous plans which were axed by Wall after he took power.
- And naturally, similar questions have to be asked about the Sask Party's Moose Jaw hospital announcement.